By Herman Tiu Laurel

 

               For nearly 25-years the Philippines and China maintained a steady and peaceful dialogue over its South China Sea disputes except for about a dozen significant enough to report incidents in over 8,500-days. Suddenly in February 2023 the clashes became almost weekly occurrences at either the Ayungin or Scarborough Shoal. It was the U.S. and its Filipino proxies’ “assertive transparency” or Project Myoushu, provocations to create the “China bully” image, but twice there had been pushbacks that called for “easing of tensions” or “de-escalation”.

Two de-escalations: The Adm. Carlos de-escalation.

               In the sixteen months since the start of the “assertive transparency” or “Project Myoushu” of the U.S. Office of Naval Research there had been two attempted pushbacks and reversal, de-escalation, of the “strategy of tension” by independent Philippine government officials. The first is what we can call the “Vice Adm. Alberto Carlos ‘flawless’ RORE mission” on February 2, 2024 and the second is the “Bersamin de-escalation” when the National Maritime Council downplayed the June 17 CCG-PN clash.

               The first attempt at de-escalation was initiated by President Bongbong Marcos himself three months before the Adm. Carlos ”flawless” RORE. It was in November at the San Francisco APEC Summit talking to President Xi on the carpeted aisle of a conference hall and passed down to the Wang Yi-Enrique Manalo phone talks and the 8^th Bilateral Consultation Mechanism between China’s MoFA and the DFA, in between the latter two was the Senor Col. Li-Vice Adm. Carlos “new model” talks.

               The AFP was elated over the success of the February 2, 2024 RORE mission which its spokesperson tagged as “flawless.” Before the elation could die down Project Myoushu proponent ex-USAF Col. Raymond Powell showed his frustration over the “no resistance” from the Chinese Coast Guard in a videocast to Manila, and on February 13, 2024 NTF-WPS spokesman proclaimed from a CSIS-Stratbase-ADR venue that the “aggressive assertive transparency” would henceforth resume.

               Four months after the “flawless” RORE mission Vice Adm. Carlos is “demoted” and his entire team that delivered on months of successful delivery missions transferred while Commodore Tarriela backed up by U.S. ex-USAF Col. Raymond Powell continued to harangue the media with escalation propaganda, then the June 17 unannounced RORE confrontation with the CCG and Philippine Navy NAVSOG erupted.

The Bersamin De-escalation.

               On June 17 the Chinese Coast Guard awaited the apparently stealth delivery mission of the NAVSOG ready to confront it with the roughest civilian tactics reminiscent of the China-India brawl with steel rods and knives at their disputed Himalayan border, but this time the Philippine NAVSOG was caught with firearms that they could not even touch lest a basis for Declaration of War be established and China go all out without any tolerance anymore.

               For a year-and-a-half using non-lethal interception tactics the CCG has faced provocations of the “assertive transparency” executed by US-led Filipino proxies, but with recent video proof of welding machines sparks taken of construction works in the BRP Sierra Madre the decision has clearly been made to go up the escalation ladder one rung. The Philippine Navy was shocked into paralysis, notwithstanding Brawner’s claim the NAVSOG fought with bare hands no such thing was seen in the videos.

               The Philippine government reaction was confusion, first came the Brawner bravados decrying harassment and asserting that “our boys fought with their fists” and then the PCG’s Tarriela disclaimed any knowledge of the operation and tossed the responsibility to the AFP and Philippine Navy. On June 21, the Little President, i.e. Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin, meeting the National Maritime Council, announced that the June 17 incident was an “accident” and “misunderstanding” trying to deescalate.

               This is what I call the Second De-Escalation as I recommend it be called in our history books, and like the First De-Escalation attempted with Vice Admiral Carlos this second one was countermanded very soon on June 24 by Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro defining the incident as an “aggressive and illegal use of force” and reversed Bersamin’s announcement that RORE missions were routine and would be announced.

US push Gibo to violate DOC: Information is not permission.

               At this point it is important to understand that ASEAN and China have always sought to establish protocols to ensure peaceful dialogue and coordination of activities of regional direct stakeholders in the South China Sea particularly claimant states, hence the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) of which the Philippines and China, along with the other ASEAN states, are signatories to. Of particular relevance are obligations of the parties to the accord under Art. 5:

               “Pending the peaceful settlement of territorial and jurisdictional disputes, the Parties concerned undertake to intensify efforts to seek ways, in the spirit of cooperation and understanding, to build trust and confidence between and among them, including:

a. holding dialogues and exchange of views as appropriate between their defense and military officials;

b. ensuring just and humane treatment of all persons who are either in danger or in distress;

c. notifying, on a voluntary basis, other Parties concerned of any impending joint/combined military exercise; and

d. exchanging, on a voluntary basis, relevant information.”

               Seen in this light the latest pronouncement from Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro that Philippine RORE missions to Ayungin Shoal will be unannounced is a violation of the understandings in the DOC as it requires prior information to all involved parties in the joint declaration. In the case of Adm. Carlos’ “flawless” mission the two-days information or notice had been agreed and followed as a protocol.  

Secretary Teodoro’s announcement of “no prior notice” is provocative on its face and China will be expected to prepare to go up the “escalation ladder”, even as the U.S. is signaling China that it is seeking de-escalation as reflected in the Washington Post June 25 report conflating U.S. and Philippine policy into one entitled, “U.S. and Philippines seek to de-escalate after sea skirmish with China.” Apparently DFA has gotten the cue and seeks the 9^th Bilateral Consultation Mechanism meet with China.

   

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