By Adolfo Quizon Paglinawan

 

Series 29: Forever Peace or Forever Wars?

One of the favorite sports of my father, as a former guerilla was hunting wildlife in the early 50s. But if there was one thing I cannot forget he kept on repeating was to keep firearms away from the reach of children.

Now with Gibo Teodoro at helm of our national defense, I fully understand the wisdom of such a fatherly advice.

Escalation of conflict

Teodoro repeatedly labeled Beijing’s maritime conduct as aggression and coercion, and hastily accused China of violating international law without supporting it with specific citations.  

He led a raid on the Philippine Sanjia Steel Corporation in Misamis Oriental last May 15, combining military and civilian law enforcement agencies, triggering wide-ranging national security, economic, and diplomatic implications.

The defense secretary arrested 69 Chinese nationals as illegal workers, raising alarms for potential intelligence-gathering, surveillance, or infiltration points near critical defense installations. He hauled them into a military plane bound for inhospitable detention facilities in Manila, only to be released by the National Prosecution Service for lack of evidence. 

For an action that had sweeping consequences, Teodoro could only offer the lame excuse that the Sanjia Steel facility was situated inside  defense-supervised PHIVIDEC Industrial Estate in Tagoloan, Misamis Oriental close to a Philippine Navy dry dock under construction.

This was of course ridiculous because Sanjia started operation on October 2018, eight years before the navy dock was even planned.

The stench became worse when three discoveries made his behavior highly suspicious:

First, the defense chief weighed heavily on the plant being linked to Tony Yang who is the brother of Michael Yang, a former presidential economic adviser. The Yang brothers faced legislative probes and charges involving falsification of their citizenship and activities of POGO-related networks.

The lawyers of Sanjia have categorically denied any connections of the company with the Yang brothers.

Second, the Philippine Daily Tribune exposed that Benjamin Yao, chairman and CEO of Steel Asia, a competitor of Sanjia, was Teodoro’s batchmate at Xavier Elementary School in San Juan City.

SteelAsia supplies over 80% of the country’s major infrastructure and construction steel bar requirements and has actively aligned with the Department of Defense under Teodoro’s watch, on matters of national security, quality standards, and domestic steel resilience.

Daily Tribune hinted at a possible “Yao” cartel, as subsequent raids hit similar “induction furnace” steel factories in Pampanga, and Davao City displacing roughly 900 Filipino workers, sparking localized protests and pleas for livelihood support.

Third, the accusations against Sanjia were far from being criminal, and could have been addressed by government regulatory agencies.

From Sanjia to ShangriLa

Two weeks later, his sharp rhetoric during the Shangri-La Dialogue security forum in Singapore heightened tensions, where he openly characterized China not only as a serious territorial but severe political threat with no long-term good faith.

In contrast, Teodoro took a hardline in defending Manila’s growing defense partnerships, such as those with Japan and other First Island Chain countries giving assurance that the Philippine military would press on with patrols despite pressure or sanctions from Beijing.

By this time his statements and actions that were often laced with prejudice and abuse of discretion, have gone beyond our borders and onto regional scenarios internationalizing the conflict.

Teodoro believes more in the United States providing an “iron-clad” military commitment to the Philippines than in China’s capacity to help Philippines economically. Why the dichotomy? Under this zero-sum condition we become proxy to the Americans because we are not involved in great power competition but the US and China.

It has become apparent that he was building a case for the Americans, consistent with his early statements siding with separatists in Taiwan, to now pivoting to Japan, which also has its own entanglements with red lines undermining China’s core interests and sabotaging China-Philippines relations.

But what broke the camel’s back was Teodoro’s forked tongue at the Singapore sidelines, that Manila has no issue with the Chinese people, but future improvements in Philippines-China relations depend entirely on whether Beijing adopts a trustworthy government system.

Nobody walks away without consequences, given that malicious insult against the Chinese Communist Party.

On June 11, 2026, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson announced that Beijing has sanctioned Teodoro by barring him, his spouse, Monica Louise “Nikki” Prieto and their son, Jaime Gilberto, from entering mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau. Chinese organizations and citizens have also been legally forbidden from engaging in any transactions, business deals, or cooperation with Teodoro and his family.

RoRe breaks down

Six days after, on June 17, the Philippine side violated terms of a provisional understanding for the peaceful routine resupply (RoRe) for the humanitarian needs of our Marines stationed at BRP Sierra Madre that has been grounded in Ayungin Shoals for the past 27 years.

When the Chinese Coast Guard personnel approached the ship to verify if indeed unauthorized construction and building materials were sneaked into the derelict wreck, the Philippine Marines provoked a violent confrontation resulting in the wounding of a Filipino soldier.

Coincidentally, exactly two years ago, Chinese coast guards blocked a Philippine Navy resupply mission bound for Ayungin Shoal, wielding knives, sticks, and an ax in an incident where a Filipino serviceman lost a thumb.

On July 2, the 9th Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the South China following “frank and constructive discussions”, then DFA Undersecretary Teresa Lazaro and Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong, reached a timely :provisional understanding for the resupply of daily necessities and rotation missions” to the BRP Sierra Madre.

Ninth bilateral consultative mechanism held in Manila.

“Both sides continue to recognize the need to de-escalate the situation in the South China Sea and manage differences through dialogue and consultation, and agree that the agreement will not prejudice each other’s positions in the South China Sea,” the DFA said in its statement.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said in a news briefing that China had agreed to allow the resupply mission out of “a humanitarian spirit.”

The Chinese official said the resupply missions could only take place “if the Philippines informs China in advance and after on-site verification is conducted.”

On January 2025,  the Philippines and China, at the 10th Bilateral Consultation Mechanism (BCM) on the South China Sea, reaffirmed to uphold the “provisional understanding”.

By June 17, 2026, fifteen RoRe missions have already been peacefully and successfully enforced for the past two years. Unfortunately, while China was informed in advance of the RoRe mission, the Philippine Marines refused on-site verification, hence the violent confrontation.

Crossroads

One day before the 59^th ASEAN Foreign Ministers in Manila, the Armed Forces of the Philippines announced, “We do not, and will never, seek permission from any foreign state to conduct operations that assert and protect our sovereign rights.”

The fallacy here is the false assumption that we have sovereign rights to protect in the affected area.

Under Article 298 of UNCLOS, the Arbitral Tribunal ultimately ruled that it lacked jurisdiction over portions of Submission No. 14 pertaining to Ayungin Shoal because it said in its Paragraph 1181 that the location presents a “quintessentially militarized situation”. 

Second, our sovereign rights in the area are also disputed by China, Taiwan and Vietnam, as such no delimitation or exercise of sovereign rights can be enforced, without the agreement of all parties involved (UNCLOS Article 59).

When Lazaro who has already been promoted as our foreign affairs secretary, met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi for sideline bilateral talks on July 22, 2026, Wang warned her that once again China-Philippine relations have already reached a crossroad.

To drown the good press that Wang Yi received, Teodoro turned his attacks on Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan.

Teodoro stressed that China has no right to interfere with Philippine activities aboard the BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal. He also avoided to confirm or deny whether there was any construction activity there that violated a provisional understanding between Beijing and Manila.

Speaking in the vernacular, the defense chief told reporters, “I don’t know about the provisional understanding that they mentioned. They have no right to interfere with what we do in our territory.”

This is another fallacy. You do not have to be a bar topnotcher to understand that such right has been superseded by any understanding. Further, his permission is not needed because the President obviously approved of such an arrangement.

Teodoro lies

Teodoro has been lying to his teeth. The arrangement was formally announced by the Department of Foreign Affairs on July 21, 2024.

Reuters covered it for international consumption: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-resupply-ship-south-china-sea-shoal-without-us-help-2024-07-21/

The next day, the Sun-Star Daily (Pampanga edition) published in full the official Philippine News Agency newswire version which is no longer retrievable in the internet: https://www.sunstar.com.ph/pampanga/ph-china-reach-provisional-arrangement-on-ayungin-missions

The Philippine Star, The Philippines Daily Inquirer, One News, Manila Bulletin, GMA News and many others published their versions of the story.

Two days later. the Philippine Consulate in Hongkong reposted the information with some updates. 

A week later, the Business Mirror came out with a follow-up: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2024/07/30/phl-agrees-to-exchange-info-with-china-on-rore/

This article covered a press conference of Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo and Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, after their 2+2 Ministerial Meeting with US State Secretary Antony Blinken and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin III, where Manalo confirmed that the Philippines and China agreed on an “exchange of information” on the conduct of rotation and resupply (RORE) mission to Ayungin Shoal in the West Philippine Sea.

After the presser, Manalo said the understanding also entails China will not block the RORE missions, and despite agreeing to China’s conditions on the RORE mission, the Philippine strategy remains, Manalo and Teodoro stressed.

 “The strategy on WPS and SCS never changes. That is to protect our rights, in accordance with the rule of law and UNCLOS,” Manalo and Teodoro said almost in unison.

Under what rock has the defense secretary been hiding for the past two years that he now claims he never agreed to the provisional agreement?

His disavowal came after Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Jing Quan claimed that there was construction activity aboard the BRP Sierra Madre, which he alleged was a violation of a supposed provisional understanding on Ayungin Shoal.

Jing added that this prompted China to deploy a rigid hull inflatable boat (RHIB) to approach and circle the grounded Philippine vessel, which led to Philippine Navy personnel to intercept and wield their oars on the Chinese side thus provoking a violent confrontation on July 20.

Teodoro rejected the claim, saying China failed to provide proof and accused Beijing of fabricating narratives to justify its actions.

        Well, here is the proof – real time and in living color.

Flatfooted defense

Teodoro was caught flatfooted and torn between participating in a widely-published policy in 2024; its reaffirmation in 2025, and a denial two years after to remain consistent to the Sinophobia he is promoting.

Now he has chosen to backtrack, feigning ignorance and non-participation in the decision making, and awkwardly equivocating between giving advance information pertaining to any RoRe mission, and “asking Chinese permission”.

The issue of asking for prior permission has been resolved and debunked in the 2024 debates as never been part of the arrangement, but Teodoro is equivocating between the two, grappling for an exit narrative.

There is whale of difference between information and permission, the former precisely to avoid surprises at sea and prevent miscalculations that could lead to occurrence of unwanted accidents and escalation of conflict.

This puts Teodoro’s value judgment into question.

Fifteen successful, peaceful RoRe missions conducted by the Philippine Navy for two years and the secretary of national defense has not been “seeing, hearing and speaking evil” about it.

What he has done is to crown the Department of Foreign Affairs for the success the provisional agreement has delivered, while he looks for an explanation to the Americans while he failed to poison the geopolitical waters.  

In my opinion, this is why Teodoro resorts to fits of tantrums, not just to balm his booboo saying he never agreed to such an arrangement (even if was approved by the President), but to demand that the DND (defense) and not DFA (diplomacy) handle the matter theretofore.

Now, Marcos is on a second reset regarding the RoRe missions by now taking the “gun” he gave to Lazaro for safekeeping and turning it over to Teodoro.

The spy narrative thins away

But as Teodoro embarks on his new assignment as “chief of routine resupply missions”, Roy Vincent Trinidad , the intel whiz and spokesman he has entrusted to set the stage, has become an inconsequential role player.

With the defense community spooked by Alice Guo vintage witch-hunt, intelligence ops have led to the arrests of suspects allegedly possessing sensitive equipment sometimes used for surveillance like the International Mobile Subscriber Identity (IMSI catcher/text blaster), and  Light Detection and Ranging(LIDAR), no pattern has been substantiated to any syndicated “espionage”.

The same conclusion applied to the nabbing of the Palawan 5, Chinese nationals on suspicion of illegal intelligence gathering operations near Ulugan Bay. Six foreign nationals and two Filipinos were also arrested for espionage on Grande Island inside Subic Bay Free Port. Both however were more logically linked to criminal activities than spying.

Even the arrest of a suspected Chinese national who enrolled in a flying school at Iba, Zambales turned sour when he was proven instead to be a Mongolian, who merely used drones to take photographs of the Iba Municipal Airport and a nearby tourist spot.

This disgraced the retirement of toe former National Security Adviser who said it was illegal for selfies within or near military installations. Iba was 75 kilometers away from the nearest military base which was Subic, a good two-hour travel by land.

Last March, Trinidad announced that military counterintelligence, under a New Insider Threat Program, has neutralized an espionage ring involving four Navy personnel who leaked classified operational data.

Unfortunately, despite an elaborate Powerpoint presentation to the mainstream media, and a staged television interview by Rappler, the gimmick did not fly because by Trinidad’s own admission, the leaks generated did not compromise the country’s primary objectives in the South China Sea.

And so, Teodoro’s maiden RoRe mission set sail on September 24, no longer covered by the provisional understanding but terms set by Teodoro denying prior information sharing with the Chinese and executed under the stealth of the night.

The operation had hardly warmed up past only a third of its intended voyage, when it was aborted at 11:08 pm, as three People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) warships including two Houbei-class missile boats, and five China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels intercepted the convoy.

When the press started fishing for a leak inside the Navy, Trinidad himself noted that an after-action review was under way because the mission encountered an unusual development when Chinese vessels started showing up about 111 kilometers or 60 nautical miles from Ayungin.

He said the Philippine vessels had previously been able to approach within just about 28 km of the shoal before encountering a significant Chinese presence.

But Trinidad said that particular night, the Chinese vessels progressively closed the distance from about 28 km to 19, 15 and 3.7 km until they were less than 1.9 km away.

“This time, shortly after we left mainland Palawan and had not even gone past the halfway point, the PLA Navy and CCG vessels could already be seen,” he said.

That Trinidad was even considering the possibility of a leak inside the Philippine Navy, shows how archaic our navy intelligence gathers information. On the other hand, it egged me to simply surf how China does its work, which I presenting below in its raw and cold form:

China’s eyes and ears

The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), in tandem with broader PLA branches, utilizes a highly sophisticated, multi-layered electronic and physical network to monitor movements in the South China Sea (SCS).

This leading-edge framework relies on a concept often referred to as the “Transparent Ocean” – a five-layer, seabed-to-space sensor architecture designed to eliminate blind spots.

1. Space-Based Reconnaissance & “Space AI”

• Satellites Network: The PLA operates a massive global surveillance satellite network optimized for wide-area maritime tracking. This includes Optical, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), Signals Intelligence (SIGINT), and Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) satellites. SAR allows them to see through cloud cover and track vessels at night, while ELINT satellites intercept the unique electromagnetic “signatures” (radar and radio emissions) of foreign naval vessels.
• Edge AI in Orbit: Modern Chinese remote-sensing satellites utilize onboard Artificial Intelligence (Space AI). Instead of sending massive raw data streams back to Earth, the satellites use AI at the point of collection to instantly detect, identify, and flag ships, transmitting only critical targeting and tracking metrics to ground stations.

2. The “Underwater Great Wall” (Subsurface Detection)

• Seabed Sonar Arrays: To counter foreign submarines, the PLAN has laid extensive networks of fixed passive and active hydroacoustic sonar arrays on the ocean floor, similar to the U.S. Navy’s Cold War-era SOSUS system but optimized with modern tech.
• Deep-Sea Mooring & Telemetry Systems: China has deployed real-time deep-sea monitoring systems. These use inductive telemetry modules and multi-sensor grids (measuring salinity, temperature, and currents) to map the ocean floor. This data helps the PLAN optimize sonar performance and detect the acoustic disturbances of passing submersibles.
• Quantum Magnetic Detection: Chinese researchers have developed and integrated drone-mounted quantum sensors capable of tracking “picotesla-level” variations in the earth’s magnetic fields. This allows anti-submarine forces to track metallic hulls and the unique underwater tail waves (wakes) left behind by deep-diving submarines.

3. Fortified Island Outposts & Floating Sensor Platforms

• Militarized Reefs: Occupied outposts in the Paracels and Spratlys (such as Mischief, Subi, and Fiery Cross reefs) serve as fixed surveillance hubs. These reefs are heavily upgraded with high-frequency over-the-horizon radars, signals intelligence arrays, and hardened electronic warfare structures to monitor all naval and air traffic.
• “Blue Ocean Information Network” Platforms: Anchored throughout international and Chinese-claimed waters is a network of unoccupied, floating surface platforms. These weather-resilient stations feature large radar domes, electro-optical/infrared (EO/IR) sensor turrets, cellular masts, and high-frequency radio systems, creating an uninterrupted chain of surveillance between Hainan Island and the forward reefs.

4. Unmanned Systems and Airborne Early Warning

• Maritime Drones & Aerostats: The PLAN deploys long-endurance shipborne and land-based Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), including nominally civilian oceanic surveillance drone fleets, to run persistent optical and radar sweeps. They also deploy high-altitude tethered aerostats (blimps) acting as permanent airborne radar eyes.
• AEW&C Aircraft: Dedicated airborne early warning platforms like the KJ-500 frequently patrol the SCS, extending the PLAN’s radar reach to detect low-flying aircraft and surface ships at extreme ranges.

5. AI-Driven Signal Processing & Dual-Use Fusion

• Electromagnetic Signal AI: The PLA leverages AI platforms built specifically to ingest massive amounts of raw, chaotic electromagnetic noise from the SCS. This AI automatically decodes coordinated tactical radar signals, identifies hidden operational parameters of foreign militaries, and predicts naval fleet movements.
• Military-Civil Fusion & BeiDou Integration: Thousands of Chinese commercial fishing vessels, maritime militia ships, and dual-use oceanographic research vessels operate in the SCS. Nearly all are equipped with China’s BeiDou Satellite Navigation System, which features built-in text-messaging and data-reporting capabilities. This transforms the massive civilian presence into an interconnected network of mobile “eyes and ears” feeding real-time situational awareness back to the PLAN command

My goodness, this menu is way, way beyond Trinidad’s spyglass (naval telescope), sextant and basic marine radars.

So I was further tempted to find out where Trinidad got his training only to find out that beyond finishing the Philippine Military Academy since 1991 and serving for a time as a Navy Seal, he had mostly sat on desk jobs promoting Hooyahs, which means in active service that he only became a rear admiral taking minutes of meetings and kissing his superiors’ rear.

Teodoro closes doors

Now what does Teodoro do besides assuming the frontlines in the RoRe missions to the BRP Sierra Madre?

The defense secretary has announced an indefinite suspension of direct military-to-military communications with China, which it said has been a policy in place since shortly after he took office in July 2023.

The Chinese Embassy in Manila criticized Teodoro, alleging that the shutdown was done for “political self-interests” and warning that it fuels mistrust, shrinks crisis management space, and brings frontline personnel closer to potential confrontation.

This indefinite suspension is the result when a politician is assigned a complicated job in governance.

“Military-to-military communication has been an integral part of defense and warfare for centuries,” wrote Dr. Anna Malindog Uy, a subject matter expert and geopolitical scientist, describing it “not merely a diplomatic channel but an essential instrument of military strategy”, allowing opposing forces to assess each other’s intentions, anticipate developments on the battlefield, prevent unnecessary escalation, and, when circumstances demand, exploit the strategic vulnerabilities of their adversaries.

She narrated that “One compelling historical example is the recapture of Jerusalem by Sultan Salahuddin Al-Ayyubi (Saladin) in 1187, whose victory illustrated that military strength, when complemented by diplomacy and effective communication, can achieve strategic objectives without unnecessary bloodshed.”

Dr. Uy emphasized, “In geopolitics, even adversaries communicate. Especially adversaries.

“During the Cold War, Washington and Moscow maintained direct communication channels precisely because they understood a fundamental principle of strategic security:

“When military tensions escalate, communication is not a concession. It is a necessity.”

During the Cuban missile crisis, this video tells us how the telephone lines were burning between the White House and Kremlin establishing a real-time communication link that aborted a nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union.

Now we know why since Teodoro assumed the defense portfolio, chaos has escalated between Philippine and China ships in the South China Seas, because has been disconnected himself from the real world.

The lady political scientist who is an expert on China, asked: “How does (Teodoro’s) deliberately eliminating a mechanism for preventing military miscalculation and potential military escalation, strengthen national security?

The South China Sea is not a venue for ordinary diplomatic disagreement. It is a maritime flashpoint where competing sovereignty claims, overlapping maritime entitlements, military deployments, and intensifying geopolitical rivalries intersect.

“In such an environment, a misinterpreted maneuver, an accidental collision, or an unauthorized tactical decision could rapidly escalate into an armed confrontation, given expanding freedom of navigation adventures by Western countries in the South China Seas, military exercises around Taiwan, and growing interoperability between the Philippines, Japan, and the United States,” she added.

 In sum, without direct military-to-military communication, the ability to clarify intentions, coordinate emergency responses, and de-escalate incidents becomes unnecessarily constrained.

Conclusion

Teodoro’s hair split leaving open communication lines to the Department of Foreign Affairs and the Philippine Coast Guard, cannot always replace immediate operational contact between military commanders facing potentially dangerous situations at sea.

Diplomatic exchanges and civilian maritime coordination almost always, comes so much after the fact.

I have said it before and I will say it again, dialogue does not require surrendering sovereignty. Negotiation does not mean abandoning maritime rights. Maintaining military hotlines does not constitute capitulation.

The argument that communication mechanisms are ineffective because mistrust persists fundamentally misunderstands the purpose of connectivity.

What is true is the reverse: Such mechanisms exist precisely because mistrust exists.

When military communications fall silent, the next message may arrive not through diplomacy, but through body bags.

To be continued.

 

 

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