By Adolfo Quizon Paglinawan

 

Series 10: Forever Peace or Forever Wars?

Filipino comédienne Tuesday Vargas serves as our ice-breaker who says that we can live without Artificial Intelligence, but if we do not have water, if our environment is polluted, and our minerals from nature are wasted, everybody suffers.

I do not think this is a joke, but a socio-political commentary.

Jesters and journalists

Patton Oswalt, an American stand-up comedian, actor, and writer. He is best known for playing Spence Olchin on the sitcom The King of Queens which ran for nine seasons on CBS from 1998 to 2007 with over 200 episodes and voicing Remy the rat in the Pixar film Ratatouille, said in an interview with South Beach Sessions:

“I hate the phrase that comedians are the truth-tellers and the philosophers. It’s like, shouldn’t we be comedians and our politicians and philosophers and journalists should be the truth-tellers standing up for people?

“The government and people in power are just openly bragging about, oh, we’re absolutely breaking the laws. Do a funny joke about it to make these people feel better while we do it to them. I feel like I’m abetting them screwing people over by giving people a temporary laugh, but it’s like I’m not equipped to affect policy and make change.

“I know how to tell really good jokes, and that should be where my responsibility begins and ends. It’s still a responsibility, but we’ve become so skewed. I don’t know. It seems kind of perfect in the apocalyptic times that we would put the court jesters in charge…”

For my part, I have already exhaustively analyzed the proposed Pax Silica project from the historiographic, educational  and  geopolitical perspectives in three articles two months ago.

May 8 – Pax Silica, another Gringo Failure in the Making

Pax Silica, another Gringo Failure in the Making

May 10 – Pax Silica leads to Bigger War without Cooperation

Pax Silica leads to Bigger War without Cooperation

May 13 – Pax Silica: Preserving US Hegemony by Japanese Surrogation

Pax Silica: Preserving US Hegemony by Japanese Surrogation

The intention of this article now, is to deal with the socio-economic  aspect of the issue tested by Tuesday Vargas opinion on the matter and from the viewpoint of Philippine  sovereignty. While the Philippine government highlights its potential to create jobs and attract tech investments, the Filipino comédienne says Pax Silica poses major risks and potential downsides for everyday Filipino.

Overtaking 30 years lead in a decade?

Pax Silica is a US-led global coalition designed to secure supply chains for artificial intelligence (AI), microchips (semiconductors), and critical minerals. The goal is to build these high-tech components among “trusted allies” to reduce dependence on China.

China is widely estimated to be more than 30 years ahead of the United States in the refinement and processing of rare earth elements, as it spent over three decades consistently developing large-scale, low-cost chemical separation techniques, while Western nations outsourced the messy, toxic work.

As a result, Beijing controls roughly 85% to 90% of global rare earth refining capacity and holds a near-monopoly on specialized equipment like solvent extraction trains and reduction furnaces.

Through Pax Silica, US experts project it will take the U.S. at least another 10 years, and billions in ongoing public-private funding to build a counterpart capability, even as industry analysts note that it takes at least a decade just to train a qualified rare-earth separation engineer and educational infrastructure in the U.S. produces a fraction of the specialized mining and metallurgical engineering graduates that Chinese universities yield annually at a respective ratio of hundreds vs. thousands.

This echoes precisely why local communities across the United States are increasingly pushing back against artificial intelligence, driven primarily by opposition to physical AI data centers, high energy and water consumption, and noise pollution. Recent data shows that roughly 7 in 10 Americans oppose building local AI data centers in their areas, sparking a rapid political backlash that is even costing politicians their seats.

Pushback in the US

While critics and community groups demand restrictions or halts to unbridled expansion, some industry proponents and local officials argue that these data centers bring necessary tax revenue and job growth, revealing a sharp divide over infrastructure needs.

But residents also feel large, wealthy tech corporations force infrastructure into towns without meaningful local input. Subsequently, local and state politicians face fierce voter anger over data center deals, leading to disrupted political careers and candidates campaigning specifically on anti-data center platforms.

New York did not completely ban artificial intelligence, but instead became the first U.S. state to place a one-year moratorium on new large-scale AI data centers, targeting facilities using 50 megawatts or more of power. Signed by Governor Kathy Hochul last July 14, 2026, Executive Order 62 halts discretionary state environmental permits for hyperscale data centers.

The moratorium applies strictly to massive data centers drawing 50+ megawatts—energy levels equivalent to powering 50,000 homes. Smaller data centers, hospital facilities, traditional bank back-offices, educational setups, and the state-backed Empire AI consortium are exempt. The one-year pause allows the Department of Environmental Conservation to draft a Generic Environmental Impact Statement assessing power grid strains, water usage, and air quality impacts.

At least 69 local US jurisdictions have also blocked, restricted, or placed temporary moratoriums on massive AI data centers.

Pushback in the Philippines

Let’s start with the labor sector. Resistance against artificial intelligence in the Philippines center on job displacement fears, rampant deepfake disinformation, and cognitive atrophy concerns.

Key concerns include the threat to the Business Process Outsourcing (BPO)  workforce, surging AI-generated scams, and a public desire for tighter ethical and security guardrails.

“A World Bank lead economist warns that 26% of the Philippine workforce could be replaced by AI,” as noted by Bilyonaryo News Channel. While many workers utilize generative tools, pushback stems from real anxieties over automation in the country’s massive Information Technology and Business Process Management sector:

Millions of Filipino livelihoods face shifting requirements, with routine tasks most exposed to displacement. Recent studies show that while a high percentage of local employees use AI, many worry it leads to weaker independent critical thinking.

Public and institutional friction caused by disinformation has intensified over safety issues and malicious AI deployment: Cybercriminals increasingly use synthetic media and voice clones to impersonate public figures and private citizens, prompting calls from officials for a temporary industry slowdown or stricter vetting.

Over 72% of adult Filipinos view the spread of false and misleading online material as a major societal problem, leading the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) to pressure tech platforms for verified IDs and mandatory AI content labels.

Sovereignty and leaked paper

But what gave a heart attack to most Filipinos, is that a government who placed high stakes on sovereignty issues has signed a position paper where one of the qualifications of a participating site is that applicable common law in the 4,000 acres Pax Silica will occupy in the New Clark City, would be that of the United States.

The Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA) explicitly denied that diplomatic immunity or US common law will apply to the proposed project, clarifying that the facility is strictly subject to Philippine laws.

BCDA President and CEO Joshua Bingcang confirmed that local statutes—specifically the BCDA Law and the Investors’ Lease Act—will govern the zone as a regular commercial contract. The Philippine government rejected the initial US proposal for special legal protections or extraterritorial status, emphasizing that no criminal or civil immunity applies to foreign personnel.

As noted by Manila Bulletin, a US State Department official later insisted the request was about “legal predictability for investors rather than immunity.”

But an alleged document leak from the US Embassy in Manila, suggests otherwise.

A Memorandum of Conversation in the US Embassy in Manila taken by political counsellor Michael Kelleher between Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Michael DeSombre, Chief of Staff La June Barnes and Charge d’Affaires Rober Ewing last February 15, 2026 at from 8:40 to 10:10pm, the tone was very different, as quoted verbatim, a portion to wit:

“On the matter of strategic realignment of the US-Philippine alliance and in lieu of additional EDCA sites, Barnes explained that State is pursuing the acquisition of land for long-term “Special Economic Security Zones.” These zones are intended to address the Philippines’ request for expanded economic cooperation while concurrently facilitating U.S. force deployment objectives.

“When Ewing inquired about the proposed operational model, Barnes suggested adopting a framework by established precedents in Israel, utilizing 99-year leasehold interests under restrictive U.S. administration, analogous to the legal status of consular districts.

“Ewing noted that a 99-year lease would likely encounter significant domestic resistance in the Philippines due to constitutional constraints and prevailing public sentiment. Therefore, while the written agreement sets a 2-year term, U.S. substantive jurisdiction extends to 99 years.

“Regarding industrial focus, DeSombre stated that these zones would prioritize defense industries centering on ammunition and materiel production to integrate the Philippines into the U.S.”

So, draw your own conclusions regarding American real intentions in the proposed 1,620-hectare Pax Silica hub contrasted with BCDA officials’ positioning it as purely non-binding commercial and business partnership focused on artificial intelligence and semiconductors.

Since our 1946 independence, the Philippines has gotten rid of heavy US impositions tied to post-war reconstruction. The Bell Trade Act of 1946 forced the Philippines to amend its 1935 Constitution to grant U.S. citizens and corporations equal rights with Filipinos in exploiting natural resources and operating public utilities. The Treaty of Manila and subsequent agreements forced the cash-strapped republic to lease major strategic military and naval lands to the United States for 99 years, where diplomatic immunity to Americans as US common law applied.

But as Ibon Foundation observes, the recent Independence Day commemorations were only theatrics to cover how the Philippines remains an instrument of the US to secure and advance its interests in the region.

The Marcos Jr administration perpetuates this one-sided situation by aligning with the US and condoning its self-serving interventions whether military or economic, drastically limiting the Philippines’ policy space and severely constraining the country‘s ability to pursue the national agricultural and industrial development so necessary to achieve genuine sovereignty and independence.

The Bases Conversion Development Authority (BCDA) says the Pax Silica development is designed to comply fully with domestic regulations regarding public land use, resource management, and environmental standards.

This is where things become even more tenuous. Let me give you a concrete example how our corrupt system handles its regulatory function.

An Environmental Clearance Certificate was issued by Lormelyn Claudio, DENR director in Central Luzon on June 14, 2019 in favor of Silvertides Holdings, a contractor of San Miguel Corp. (SMC), to develop 2,070 hectares in the coastal villages of Bambang and Taliptip in Bulakan town for the construction of a P734-billion international airport in Bulacan. When I filed formal complaint and opposition against the Silvertides reclamation project with the DENR Main Office, calling the attention of Secretary Roy Cimatu, Undersecretary Atty. Analiza Rebuelta-Teh. replied to me that the San Miguel project was not a reclamation but a “horizontal development”, and the ECC was not for an airport.

Today the total scope of the project has grown to 3,000 hectares of landfill, over a deltaic flood plain that used to absorb the waters. As we speak, the rainwaters coming from the northern mountain ranges is instead now being displaced by this “horizontal development” onto the streets and homes of hundreds of thousands of nearby residents, because it blocks the natural pathway outflowing onto Manila Bay.

Bending the law in exchange for a “consideration”, has been part and parcel of Philippine governance.

A longer discussion is how the Energy Regulatory Commission, mired in corruption, has miserably failed for decades to implement the Supreme Court ruling on providing consumers electricity at the lowest cost, instead fattening the pockets of the oligarchs that control the industry.

Rainwater mismanagement

Rodrigo Bonifacio, a former police colonel blows the whistle in a Facebook post saying that to arrive at an honest and accurate narrative regarding the Philippines’ water security in the face of the ambitious Pax Silica project, we must look at the hard data, and not rely on uneducated talking points.

1) The Inventory: Do we have enough water aside from rain?

The short answer is no. In a tropical archipelago like ours, rain is the ultimate and only primary source. Every other source we use is merely a “storage container” for rain.

Surface Water like rivers, lakes, and reservoirs are the “checking accounts” of our water system. We have 421 principal river basins and 18 major ones. This water is entirely dependent on recent rainfall and forest cover to prevent it from washing out to sea immediately.

Groundwater such as aquifers) are the “savings accounts.” This water is stored in the soil and rock layers. However, groundwater is also recharged by rain. In many areas (Bulacan, Pampanga Metro Manila, Cavite, Cebu), we are withdrawing groundwater faster than the rain can refill it, leading to land subsidence (sinking) and saltwater intrusion.

The Philippines receives about 2,400mm of rain annually, which is one of the highest in the world. On paper, we have a theoretical surplus. However, due to a lack of impounding infrastructure, we capture only about 6% to 10% of that rainfall. The rest is lost to the sea or causes destructive flooding.

2) The Reality Paradox: Is it enough for basic needs?

Despite the heavy rain, we experience spatial and seasonal water stress.

There is seasonal shortage because during the dry season or El Niño, reservoirs like Angat often drop below critical levels.

There is infrastructure shortage. We don’t have a “water supply” problem; we have a “water management” problem. Our pipes leak (Non-Revenue Water), and our treatment plants are maxed out.

Millions of Filipinos, especially in urban centers and agricultural provinces like Tarlac, already face water rationing or lack of access to clean potable water.

3) The Pax Silica Factor: Analyzing the BCDA Claim

BCDA President Joshua Bingcang stated that Pax Silica will require 65 to 90 Million Liters per Day (MLD) and will not use groundwater. They plan to use surface water and a dedicated 120-MLD treatment plant.

The scientific concern is while BCDA claims they will get water from “the rain” (surface water), this water is currently used for irrigation. Capas, Tarlac is a primary agricultural zone.

There will be competition for resources. If Pax Silica draws 90 MLD from surface sources like the O’Donnell River or the Bulsa River, that is water diverted from rice and sugarcane fields.

There will be high-tech demand.  Semiconductor “fabs” don’t just need water; they need Ultra-Pure Water (UPW). Producing 1 liter of UPW often requires 1.5 to 2 liters of raw water. Data centers also need massive volumes for evaporative cooling to keep servers from melting. This water is literally turned into steam and lost to the local community’s immediate reach.

Analysis: Reality vs promises

The ambitious Pax Silica project stands at a crossroads between industrial progress and the basic survival of the local population. To understand the true impact, we must look past the official promises and examine the real-world risks facing the community.

• The Conflict Over Water Sources: The project proponents promise to rely solely on surface water and rainfall to feed the hub’s massive appetite. However, the reality on the ground is that this same water is the lifeblood of downstream farmers and the indigenous Aeta communities. By diverting these rivers to power high-tech factories, the project risks leaving the ancestral lands and the nation’s food-growers with empty irrigation canals.
• The Reality of Sustainability: While there are plans for a massive treatment plant to recycle water, the narrative of “perfect recycling” is often a myth. In high-tech hubs, data centers use water for cooling by turning it into vapor. This means that a significant portion of the water taken from the environment is literally evaporated into the sky, permanently removing it from the local community’s immediate reach.
• The Hidden Threat to Groundwater: BCDA has pledged not to extract water from the ground. Yet, during a severe drought or an El Niño cycle, the project will face a desperate choice: let billions of dollars’ worth of sensitive equipment overheat or tap into the underground aquifers. If the project is forced to prioritize its machines during a water crisis, the surrounding community may find their own local wells running dry.
• The Risk of Chemical Waste Pollution: The project promises modern, clean waste management. However, the manufacturing of semiconductors inherently involves the use of toxic acids and heavy metals. Should any failure occur in the hub’s waste systems, these toxins could leak into the Tarlac watershed. This is not just a local problem; because Tarlac is a heartland for agriculture, a single leak could poison the crops and the food supply that the entire island of Luzon relies on.

Conclusion

Bonifacio’s conclusion is brief: We do not have a surplus of available water. We have a surplus of unmanaged rain. Unless Pax Silica builds its own separate water storage from scratch, it will inevitably compete with the Filipino farmer and the local household for every drop of water.

Frankly, source of rainwater would not have been a problem if  President Bongbong Marcos already started his planned impounding system for the Candaba Swamp made in 2023. Hearings and orders for definitive planning were issued.

What followed was atrophy. This is a classic example of why his trust are approval ratings are scrubbing the cellar.

If he started it then, that would have been finished already after three years, alleviating massive flooding created by the Bulacan airport reclamation and gave  Pax Silica one problem less.

Originally pitched in 2013 by former Public Works Secretary Rogelio Singson, the project aims to curb massive flooding in Central Luzon.

The project involves securing about 200 hectares—10% of the 2,000-hectare swampland in Candaba—to build a massive water collection and storage pool. Its collected water would have exceeded the impounding capacity of La Mesa Dam reservoir controlling seasonal floodwaters, harvesting rain for irrigation or energy, and easing overflow in low-lying towns.

But like the Candaba project, Pax Silica might just end up a lot of hot fart in a suitcase (maleta).

What has become the new normal is wanton and unmitigated plunder of the national budget.

The President blames his cousin for that, but he is still untouchable after one year of celebrated investigation.

   

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