By Adolfo Quizon Paglinawan

 

By Adolfo Quizon Paglinawan

Part 29: Where the Philippines sees War, China seeks Diplomacy

The ASEAN Plus Three (APT) is not one of those Asean Summits where Asean intramurals are discussed among its now 11 members, with the acceptance of Timor Leste. This summit variance is when Asean invites three Northeast Asian countries as guests and where north and south subregions dialog for mutual solutions and benefits, deepening cooperation between ASEAN member states and the “+3” countries (China, Japan, and South Korea) across a wide range of areas, including political and security, economic, and socio-cultural development.

Drivers of urgency for China, Japan and South Korea

For the Northeast Asian countries, the urgency stems from ASEAN’s rapid growth, deepening economic ties offer significant opportunities as trading partners and investment destinations, and the need to diversify away from over-reliance on specific markets, such as China and the United States, amid geopolitical competition, and fostering supply chain resilience.

• Economic growth and market diversification:

South Korea, for instance, aims to reduce its dependence on China, especially after the THAAD crisis that resulted in substantial economic damage for South Korean businesses, increased anti-China sentiment in South Korea, and a more strategic realignment for South Korea towards the US and other regional partners. While both countries eventually normalized relations, the dispute exacerbated existing tensions and influenced South Korea’s future foreign policy decisions.

For Japan, Prime Minister Takaichi said “I attended the Japan-ASEAN Summit. We agreed to strengthen our cooperation in important areas for Japan and ASEAN to grow together, including cybersecurity, maritime security, AI, digital, and green technologies. Japan will strengthen relations with ASEAN as “trusted partners” and promote a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.”

For China, ASEAN’s growing importance as its largest trading partner since 2020 offers a way to offset the impact of U.S.-China trade conflicts. Wang Wenbin, Chinese ambassador to Cambodia said China always regards ASEAN as a priority in its neighborhood diplomacy. “We will work to build the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 and ensure the high-quality implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (providing) more stability and certainty to the region and beyond.”

• Supply chain integration and resilience:

Deep integration into ASEAN’s industrial and supply chains offers potential benefits for all parties. Increased participation strengthens the resilience of these supply chains against external shocks, such as geopolitical tensions or economic downturns.

• Geopolitical competition

There is a growing competition between China and other powers for economic influence in Southeast Asia. Stronger ties with ASEAN can be seen as a way for Japan and South Korea to balance China’s growing economic dominance. 

Drivers of urgency for ASEAN

For ASEAN, participation is urgent to accelerate economic growth, integrate into global supply chains, and leverage the region’s dynamism.

• Economic integration and strengthening regional cooperation:

Through mechanisms like the Asean Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint and the Asean Trade in Services Agreement (ATISA), deepening participation with the larger economies of Northeast Asia is crucial to achieve these goals and boost regional competitiveness.

Closer economic cooperation helps create a more unified and robust ASEAN bloc, which can negotiate more effectively with larger global economic players.

Collaborative projects, such as those under the Asean Plus Three (APT) initiative, help foster cooperation on issues like food security, disaster response, and capacity building. 

• Access to capital and technology:

The participation of China, Japan, and South Korea provides access to vital capital, technology, and investment, which is necessary for the region’s industrialization and development.

Philippine faux pas

            You know, I have just finished watching The Haunted Palace, a South Korean television series that aired from April to June of this year, about the reign of King Sejo, the seventh monarch who reigned the Joseon dynasty of Korea from 1455-68. The fictional drama revolved around the love story of a shaman and an emuji, an ancient serpent in their battle to protect the royal bloodline from the vicious attacks of a vengeful spirit.

I did not anticipate that our president, Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr., will bring along with him one such vengeful spirit from Malacanang Palace where he resides, and use the Asean Plus Three Summit in Kuala Lumpur as an occasion to pick a fight against one of its guests from the north, the People Republic of China.

This was an occasion for diplomacy, not a gripe session. It is basic good manners and right conduct not to shame any invited guests anywhere, especially in the presence of other heads of state and heads of government gathered for constructive pursuits.

Besides, it is only the Philippines that have issues with China in the South China Seas, that are not being addressed quietly through diplomatic channels. Outgoing Asean chairman Anwar Ibrahim gave a timely response: “If you have any problems with China, don’t put the pressure on us.

Once again, Marcos has succeeded in isolating his country from the rest of ten Asean members, by ventilating parochial concerns which throws cold water into the hospitable and warm enthusiasm of the other participants. No wonder the other Asean members already considers the Philippines pariah or an outcast, an outlier.

Ironically, we are the incoming chairman for 2026 for Asean’s revolving leadership. I could see from the video that his Secretary of Foreign Affairs Maria Teresa Lazaro, was constantly avoiding looking at the cameras as she kept frowning in her seat as Marcos was delivering his statement directly in front of her.

Marcos did not directly name China in his intervention, but said Manila is deeply concerned over “dangerous maneuvers and coercive actions” that interfere with legitimate Philippine activities in the West Philippine Sea (WPS).

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. used the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) Summit, a forum for regional diplomacy, to criticize what he alleged as China’s “illegal” activities in the South China Sea, taking advantage of the presence of the heads of states of different nations, particularly the United States and its allies Japan and South Korea.

The Philippine president did not define China’s aggressive activities, dangerous maneuvers, coercive actions. He did not say what he meant by West Philippine Sea

The Philippine president did not explain why he was averse to establishing a nature reserve in Bajo de Masinloc, which is Chinese territory. He even encroached in China’s internal policy by complaining that China’s State Council approved the initiative last September.

The Philippine president rebuked China over what he claimed as its coast guard’s repeated harassment, including the water cannoning of Filipino vessels. In international law, water cannons, lasers and sonics are legitimate non-lethal weapons (NLWs) used in law enforcement.

The Philippine president licentiously used the terms UNCLOS, 2002 Declaration of Conduct and international law without specifying applications.

Hidden agenda

Towards the end of his speech, Marcos began unraveling what he was doing – serving as a curtain raiser for President Donald Trump, mouthing the talking points of the US Embassy in Manila:

“We acknowledge the United States’ continued support by co-chairing the Asean Regional Forum (ARF) Training Series and Best Practice Manual on International Ship and Port Facility Security Code from 2021-2024, an important initiative aimed at enhancing capacity in the shipping and seafaring industry in Asean,” he said.

He said he was looking forward to co-chairing with the United States and the Republic of Korea (ROK) the upcoming ARF Workshop on Best Practices for Port State Measures to Combat Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) Fishing, which will strengthen maritime security and sustainability.

In tackling transnational crime and terrorism, Marcos mentioned the ongoing collaboration under the Asean Plus United States Senior Officials Meeting on Transnational Crime (SOMTC + U.S.) Consultations, focusing on human trafficking, cybercrime, illicit drugs, terrorism, and wildlife and timber trafficking.

On the economic front, Marcos stressed the value of the Asean-United States Trade and Investment Facilitation Arrangement in supporting trade, MSMEs (micro, small and medium enterprises), digital economy initiatives, cybersecurity and sustainability.

He also noted continued initiatives of Asean and the United States to promote people-to-people exchanges, including on education and youth empowerment.

In closing, he welcomed the adoption of the Asean–United States Joint Vision Statement, calling it a strategic framework that aligns with Asean’s long-term vision and strengthens collaboration for peace, stability and prosperity in the region.

All bark, no bite

There you go, as incoming chair of Asean for 2026, Marcos has served advance notice to the organization of his platform as sycophant and agent of the United States for the latter’s Indo-Pacific ambitions.

Our president was clearly showing off his canine devotion to President Donald Trump, by serving as the American curtain raiser.

Trump, however, ignored him.

And why not? When Marcos visited Trump in Washington DC, the US president advised him in open television to make friends with China, if it would serve the Philippines’ best interests. From that time on, Trump has been walking on eggshells because after a six-year gap, an October 30 brief catch-up had been scheduled between Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, which could be a high-stakes encounter unfolding amid escalating trade frictions and global economic uncertainty.

The last time the two leaders met face-to-face was during Trump’s first term. A renewed engagement, according to US officials, aims to rebuild a fragile trade truce that has frayed in recent months. Both sides are entering talks wary but cautiously hopeful, with Washington still reeling from the negative effects of the recent announcement of China strictly regulating the supply of rare-earth elements to the West.

Trump’s cameo role in Kuala Lumpur was more than a public relations appeasement of Asean, but a calculated prestaging of his meeting with President Xi in Korea.

So the American president slaps Marcos bigtime and denied him any dogfood.

Instead, Trump announced a new trade agreement granting a 0% import tariff exemption to three Southeast Asian countries – Thailand, Malaysia, and Cambodia, removing the 19% retaliatory tariff previously imposed on the three nations.

These countries are not security treaty allies of the US, we are. We have a Mutual Defense Treaty since 1951. They do not host 9 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) bases and 16 other facilities to justify American presence, we do.

We have been waiting since February 2023 for the delivery on their pledge of $100 million a year for five years to assist modernization of military

For now, we pay 100% tariff on microchip products and 19% of everything else to export to the US. The Americans pay nothing to export to the Philippines.

The Malaysians, Thai and Cambodians got the bacon, while Marcos returned home empty-handed.

Conclusion

Retired Admiral Joel Garcia of the Philippine Coast Guard commented, “Whoever advised the president and crafted his remarks for the Summit appears to have a very shallow understanding of foreign relations and geopolitics. What have we gained out of that megaphone stunt?

“Rather than build alliances, we may have isolated ourselves, further, earning apathy, worst amusement. In geopolitics being loud does not make you strong, it just makes everyone notice how weak and nervous you are.

“Kawawa ang bansa, puro Boy Scouts and Girl Scouts ang nakapaligid kay PBBM.” (I pity the country. The president is surrounded by nothing but boy and girl scouts.)

            Worse, after demonizing China with fabricated charges, Marcos announces a day after, that he is inviting Xi Jinping to visit Manila sometime soon.

I mean hello? Is Marcos, a reincarnation of Robinson Crusoe, Crusoe, washed up onto his own desolate shore?

To be continued.

@kendrickspeakss

Why does the Philippines not have a 0% tariff? #philippines #usa #marcos

♬ original sound – kendrickspeaks – kendrickspeaks

   

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