By Adolfo Quizon Paglinawan

 

Part 5: An old order gives way to a new one, reshaping global geopolitics

A 74-page white paper is circulating in the diplomatic corps assessing the implication of the US pivot toward the Indo Pacific, as well as shares insights on President Donald Trump’s rogue behavior and dysfunctional policies.

It concluded by offering short to long-range options that could break the build-up for war in East Asia and allow our country to return to the path of peace and much-needed economic and social recovery.

Contributors to discussions from November 2025 to January 2026 were Ambassadors Clemencio Montesa, Raul Rabe, Jose Syjuco Jr., Nelson Laviña, Generoso Calonge, Jesus Yabes, George Reyes, Victoria Bataclan, Lamberto Monsanto, Lourdes Morales and Virgilio Reyes Jr., who put together the ideas and proposals on South China Sea  issue discussed in the DFA Retirees’ Viber Chat Group, into a white paper.

The retired ambassadors admonished our nation’s leaders to chart and implement an independent foreign policy that will genuinely protect not just our sovereignty, territorial integrity and in the final analysis, our national survival.

Surrogates to war

The 74-page paper acknowledged that many nations are starting to doubt the principles and values that the US stands as it violates international law with impunity in attacking Venezuela and Iran.

The threats of Mr. Trump to annex Greenland a territory of Denmark, a NATO ally, and Cuba are brazen acts that make a mockery of the rule of law, the white paper added.

It is whimsical, nay delusional, to still consider the United States as a reliable partner.

It also observed that as a descending superpower, the US has increasingly relied on surrogates in Europe, the Middle East and Asia to share the burden of pursuing its foreign and defense policy objectives.

Notably, in Europe it has subcontracted the conduct and financing of the war in Ukraine to the Europeans.

In the Middle East, it has depended on Israel to extinguish regional fires even as that country continues to suppress and starve the Palestinians.

In Asia, it expects Japan, India and Australia to be its main backers as the Philippines and Taiwan are being used to counter Beijing.

Among the burning concerns hinted in the  paper, is the growing Japanese militarism.

Japan ‘defense’ today

As of April 2026, Japan is accelerating its defense transformation, moving away from its post-war pacifist stance toward a more active “neo-militarism” that includes record defense spending, the deployment of combat troops abroad, and the acquisition of long-range strike capabilities. 

For the first time since World War II, Japan is deploying approximately 1,000 to 1,400 combat-capable troops from its Ground, Maritime, and Air Self-Defense Forces to the Philippines for the Balikatan 2026 annual exercises, running from April to May.

Japan is now the third-largest troop contributor to these drills, which include anti-ship missile systems, marking a shift from previous, limited participation in humanitarian roles to fully integrated, large-scale combat drills.

This deployment is enabled by the Japan-Philippines Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) that took effect in September 2025, strengthening regional deterrence against China.

Japan’s Fiscal Year 2026 budget was approved with a 9.4% increase in defense spending, surging past the 9-trillion-yen mark for the first time.

The government has made the defense industry a key pillar of its economic strategy, with 2026 Official Security Assistance (OSA) budgeted at 18.1 billion yen (US$116 million) to assist partners, with plans for increased arms exports.

As of March 31, 2026, Japan began deploying the Type 25 Surface-to-Ship Missile (1,000 km range) and Type 25 HVGP, representing the initial operational deployment of its “counter-attack” strategy. The defense ministry is creating specialized units for deploying drone weapons and AI-based systems to enhance maritime defense. 

In addition, it has signed a $1.7 billion contract in 2024 with the US to buy 400 U.S. Tomahawk missiles to boost long-range deterrence for installation on its eight Aegis destroyers (Kongo, Atago, Maya classes) by 2027.

While originally aimed for completion delivery  by March 2028, Bloomberg reports that the order faces potential delays because of the United States’ high consumption of the subsonic missiles in ongoing conflicts and its need to restock.

Tomahawks are offensive weapons that can be tipped with nuclear warheads.

Internal thermostat

Under Prime Minister Takaichi, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is pushing to revise Article 9 of the constitution to explicitly reorganize the Japan Self-Defense Forces, with aims to submit a proposal by 2027.

The moves have sparked nationwide protests in Japan, with citizens expressing concern that the country is abandoning its pacifist pledges and running the risk of being dragged into regional conflicts.

Public opinion in Japan on constitutional revision is deeply divided, with no clear consensus and a general caution among the public, despite political momentum, according to polls.

While a majority may acknowledge a need to debate changes, particularly concerning security, roughly 50% or more often express skepticism or opposition to actual revision.

The affirmation is for debate not urgency. A February 2026 poll by Jiji Press found that 51.4% of respondents expect progress in debate following the LDP’s election victory, but other polls indicate 65% of the public feel no need to rush the process.

According to Kyodo News, public opinion is sharply split on amending the war-renouncing Article 9, with recent figures indicating roughly 51% in support and 46% against.

Among those favoring revision, the primary motivator is adapting to the changing security environment and strengthening defense provisions. Asia Society notes that those against revision heavily cite the importance of maintaining Article 9 as a symbol of peace.

Indicatorshistorically shifted from indifference in the early post-war era to increased focus on Article 9 since the 1960s.

Regional tremors

Russia and China have accused Japan of abandoning its postwar commitment and renewing militarization that violates international agreements, warning this could cause an arms race in the region.

Significantly, North Korea has also accused Japan of a “grave provocation” this week after Tokyo laid out its opposition to Pyongyang’s nuclear program in an annual diplomatic paper.

The countries do not have formal diplomatic relations, and Pyongyang frequently criticizes Tokyo over its colonial rule of the Korean peninsula, which ended with World War II.

North Korea has insisted that it will not give up its nuclear arsenal, describing its path as “irreversible” and vowing to strengthen its capabilities.

Tokyo also downgraded its assessment of China for the first time in a decade, calling Beijing an “important neighbor” instead of “one of Japan’s most important” partners. It marked the latest deterioration in ties with Beijing since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi indicated in November that Tokyo could intervene militarily in the event of an attack on Taiwan.

China views the self-ruled island as its territory and has not ruled out taking it by force. But the recent red-carpet visit of the opposition Kuomintang Party (KMT) leader Cheng Li-wun to Beijing augurs more of diplomacy rather than war taking over this reunification issue.

Japan-Philippines reciprocity

The Japan-Philippines Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), signed on July 8, 2024, and set to enter into force on September 11, 2025,facilitates faster deployment of forces for joint exercises, training, and disaster relief.

This pact was expedited by the sitting Secretary of Defense Gilbert Teodoro, who is an American dog suspected to be a European citizen of Malta.

It enhances defense cooperation and operational interoperability, allowing for easier, visa-free access for troops to each other’s territories, aiming to strengthen security in the Indo-Pacific.

RAA signed by Teodoro, with Marcos Jr claps in approval.

In short. it legitimizes the presence of Japanese military forces in Philippine soil after 80 years of absence since the end of World War II.

I will defer my analytics to Maria Doe, one of my avid subscribers who is an OFW for her most commonsensical observation:

“I wonder” she says, “if you have noticed the upcoming large-scale joint military exercises. What shocks me most is that Japan will also participate this time, and this news has become very popular in Japan.

“I really cannot imagine that the two countries that once invaded us are stepping onto our territory again, which is very likely to drag the Philippines into the vortex of war.

“Nowadays, militarism is running rampant in Japan, which poses a major threat to world peace. Yet many people still fail to see the real situation.

“The Philippines aligning with Japan means that we are also drifting away from peace and marching step by step toward war!”

Conclusion

The one-million casualties of World Wart II in the     Philippines out of 17,000,000 is 6% of our population in 1941, equivalent to 7 million to our population today in conventional warfare.

Nuke it, and that may mean our survival as a nation.

At this point, allow me to echo the wisdom of retired Philippine Coast Guard Commandant Joel Garcia in his call for national solidarity:

“The country must immediately adopt a comprehensive strategic plan anchored on multiple scenarios, each with clearly defined courses of action. Preparedness is not optional. It is a duty of governance.

“The government must now convene a national security summit, bringing together all national leaders in government, opposition, business, and key stakeholders, to forge a unified program of action for peace.

“Without unity of effort, strategy collapses and our nation will surely pay the price.”

As Filipinos, we have no business dying for Americans and their Japanese surrogates.

Stop Japan’s militarism now!

Japan’s Sphere of Influence, 1941-45

   

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