By Hugo Santos

 

As Chair of ASEAN in 2026, the Philippines will need to present itself as a neutral convenor, in line with ASEAN’s tradition as a consensus-based regional bloc. This role provides Manila with an opportunity to engage a wide range of dialogue partners, including China, within a multilateral and less confrontational setting.

As Chair of ASEAN in 2026, the Philippines will need to present itself as a neutral convenor, in line with ASEAN’s tradition as a consensus-based regional bloc. This role provides Manila with an opportunity to engage a wide range of dialogue partners, including China, within a multilateral and less confrontational setting.

 

In this context, the chairmanship could help create space for cooperation in less sensitive areas. Initiatives related to economic development, climate change, and business engagement may serve as avenues for interaction between Manila and Beijing. Such cooperation aligns with what is often described as “low-politics”, referring to non-security issues that are less politically sensitive. At the same time, the ASEAN framework, particularly its consensus-based approach, allows claimant states in the South China Sea to maintain dialogue while managing differences. While discussions on such as the Code of Conduct (COC) remain ongoing, this mechanism provides a channel for continued discussion, making low-politics a practical pathway alongside more sensitive issues.

 The Philippines sits in a geographically advantaged position while at the same time being geopolitically constrained due to its traditional security alliances. Recent geopolitical developments have also exposed structural vulnerabilities, including economic dependencies, which may influence Manila’s external policy adjustments.

 As one of the faster-growing economies in the region with a young population, the Philippines is investing in new industries to strengthen its resilience to external challenges. In this context, cooperation in areas such as investment and industry development may provide additional avenues for less sensitive engagement. A potential joint oil and gas exploration with China is also on the horizon, while the development of the Philippines’ EV industry may help reduce reliance on oil and gas and contribute to addressing climate-related environmental issues.

 Taken together, these developments suggest that 2026 may serve as a diplomatic window for the Philippines to pursue cooperation with China. Recent engagements indicate that Manila is exploring ways to expand its diplomatic outreach while managing existing partnerships. Interactions with China in both multilateral and bilateral settings show that communication channels are being maintained, with continued efforts to manage tensions through dialogue.

 In practical terms, the tourism sector illustrates how low-politics can function as a mechanism for cooperation. Efforts to promote people-to-people exchanges, including expanding connectivity and facilitating travel, provide relatively less sensitive opportunities for interaction.

 Overall, developments in less sensitive areas reflect a broader approach to managing Philippine–China relations. While this does not resolve more sensitive strategic issues, it provides a way for both sides to continue engagement across multiple sectors.

(This article was first published in https://www.coa-observation.com/)

   

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