September 13, 2024
9AM – 12NN
Report from Vladivostok Eastern Economic Forum,
Hugo Santos;

Beijing Xiangshan Security Forum,
Herman Laurel;

“The Strategic Goal of the U.S.: PH-CN Permanent Crisis”

Zoom ID: 880 8569 9923
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88085699923

Herman Tiu Laurel
President, Asian Century Philippines Strategic Studies Institute

Sass Rogando Sasot
PhD in International Relation Student in Beijing

Hugo Santos
Youth Representative,
Asian Century Philippines
at Vladivostok Eastern Economic Forum

Daniel Long
Moderator, Asian Century Philippines Strategic Studies

Restore Sovereignty, Save the Philippines

It seems almost forgotten now that the Philippine Constitution mandates an “Independent Foreign Policy” for the country. The Constitution states that “foreign military bases, troops, or facilities shall not be allowed in the Philippines.”

Today, however, the U.S. military bases in the Philippines has even installed banned intermediate missile launchers within the country, which has put the country in the crosshairs of America’s enemies.

                In January of 2023, was only twenty-one months ago , the Philippines was looking forward to a future of progress and prosperity as all ASEAN countries are enjoying today. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. (BBM) even snagged $ 22.8-bn in investments from President Xi Jinping during his state visit to China his first one outside of ASEAN and symbolically, before even going to the West.

                Just one month later in February of 2023, the BBM government announced its agreement with the U.S. for four additional U.S. Bases in the country in a clear betrayal of the Constitution. BBM also adopted the “assertive transparency” strategy of Project Sealight of the US Office of Naval Research, which uses Philippine maritime security assets to provoke and sensationalize China’s control measures in disputed areas of the South China Sea.

                Ten months of “assertive transparency” failed. At the sidelines of the San Francisco APEC Summit BBM appealed to President Xi Jinping to “bring down the temperature, to not escalate the situation…” in the South China Sea. This was followed by the Wang Yi-Enrique Manalo diplomatic phone conversation where Wang Yi warned that the Philippines was at a “crossroad.” This resulted in a “new model” de-escalation that was sealed by the 9th Bilateral Consultation Mechanism in January 2024, resulting in f a “flawless” supply mission in February.

                Quickly, the U.S. and its Filipino proxies mobilized to subvert the de-escalation, which led to the June 17, 2024 “rogue” supply mission of Navy Special Operations Command . The Chinese Coast Guard stopped the rogue mission and boarded the navy boats, causing major humiliation to the Philippines. The BBM government then ordered the “Bersamin” 2nd de-escalation, while the US and its proxies started to create Ayungin-BRP Sierra Madre 2.0 at Sabina (Escoda) Shoal, this time with the semi-grounded BRP Teresa Magbanua.

                “A promise is a comfort for a fool.” Hoping for American support because of the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty and “U.S. Coast Guard escorts” for the supply missions that had been “promised” since August 2023, the Philippine proxies continue to wait for the U.S. Cavalry. The BRP Teresa Magbanua is now surrounded by dozens of Chinese Coast Guard ships and countless maritime volunteer boats. On September 2, 2024, DFA Sec. Manalo admits he is back to square one and seeking “possible new approaches… we have made the necessary approaches to China…,”

                The U.S. “assertive transparency” is at a dead end, and so is BBM’s pivot to America. The nation has been divided by America’s pursuit of vengeance against sovereign Filipinos like the Dutertes, invited nuclear devastation by forcing U.S. missiles into the country, motivated the gloomy investment climate that has depressed the economy and cancelled China-funded infra projects and replaced these with empty promises for fools.

                The transparency initiative got this far a because of the vast propaganda network of the US proxies in the country that is funded by the parasitic media oligarchy that is feeding on privatized economic oligopolies. The dominance of this vast network is now challenged by “mosquito think tanks” and “small time independent public intellectuals and bloggers” To the extent that GMA7 has had to lead  a “Panata Laban sa fake news” to reinforce its credibility that has been severely eroded by “fake news from omission”.

                To repeat  Minister Wang  Yi’s advice to Sec. Enrique Manalo during the December 2023 phone conversation on de-escalation, the “China-Philippines relationship now stands at a crossroads, with its future yet to be decided… The Philippine side must act with caution.” One fork in the road leads to Armageddon, and the other to the highway now travelled by the Global Majority and ASEAN, the BRICS road, the multipolar world of peace and prosperity.

China’s Construction of a “Shared Future”

                During his speech at the prestigious Manila Forum on August 22, 2024, Chinese Ambassador Huang proposed the vision of  a Greater Manila Bay Area (GMBA) economic growth center. This follows from the China-led AIIB (Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank) $ 1-B loan to the Bataan-Cavite Interlink Bridge that would realize inclusive and sustainable Greater Manila Area growth. There is much more of the same going forward.

From 2016 to 2022, China and the Philippine enjoyed the fruits of cooperation: infrastructure projects such as the Chico River Irrigation Dam, the Pasig River bridges, the Kaliwa Dam, the Davao Bucana Bridge, and many private sector investments that enhanced the quality of life of Filipinos, from the cheaper DITO Telecoms to countless renewable energy projects and many others.

The economy was robust with 2-million Chinese tourist arrivals spending $ 2-billion bringing to almost 9-million total in 2019 (don’t understand(. Today, less than 350,000 Chinese tourists have come  total tourism dropped to only 3.3-million August of 2024. Under Duterte, the Philippines became China’s top banana source and was able to open the latter’s Durian and Avocado markets. Today, Vietnam bananas have overtaken the Philippines.

The U.S.-Japan promises.

                The U.S. promised its military bases would be “disaster aid” centers and sanctuaries. Several typhoons and floods have come and gone and no aid has been seen, save for some PR photos of USAID and Ambassador Carlson. The U.S. promise of a progressive Luzon Economic Corridor has been reduced from 28 to 10 projects due to uncertain funding even as recession looms in the U.S. and Japan, and after China withdrew its loan commitment of $ 850-Billion.

The U.S. is now pressing the Philippines to buy missiles and 40 jets for $ 33-Billion. There is the much ballyhooed $ 500-million military “foreign military financing” for five years that will enable the Philippines’ AFP and Coast Guard to exclusively acquire U.S. military equipment. All these are promises that the U.S. Congress has yet to approve. The U.S. has “ruled out” and even refuses to discuss a PH-US Free Trade Agreement to help Philippine exports.

US help is merely to refer the Philippines to South Korea, Israel and other U.S. allies’ defense industries so that it can buy old models of warplanes, ships, drones, anti-ship missiles without C4i (command, control, communications and intel) systems. These are happening in the midst of growing poverty and hunger in the country, bloating national debt, increasing revenue shortfalls, continuing shortfall in food production and affordability, rampaging inflation.

Back to the Future: Sovereignty and Economic Reconstruction.

                In March 2022, President Duterte said the Philippines “must honor the joint (60/40 oil and gas) exploration agreement with Beijing” that, if not for the sabotage, would now be profiting Filipinos. This joint exploration agreement is going back to our sovereign past to build a prosperous future. That’s the way to win in all the disputes.

From there, we can restore the $ 22.8-bn project financing from President Xi in January 2023. And then revive the 1,100 km. of the Mindanao Circumferential Rail, the Bicol South Rail, achieve the Greater Manila Bay Area vision, equal if not beat our ASEAN peers in friendly and frenzied competition. for a middle power that’s a Win-Win all the way.

                Going back means removing the U.S. bases from the Philippines, revisiting the invalid quo warranto imprimatur of  disqualified Supreme Court Chief Justice Sereno for the EDCA Bases, and erasing any prospect of a nuclear Holocaust. The late Miriam Santiago argued: “”That such a prohibited ‘treaty’ has been concluded by the Executive Department as an executive agreement testifies to its inherently prohibitory nature under the Constitution ,..”

                In countless surveys, including that of Pulse Asia in June 2024, the Filipino people have spoken again and again .These surveys show 95% of the people wanting economic action in controlling inflation, unemployment, hunger, criminality, corruption. Only 5% worry about “Defending the Integrity of Philippine Territory against Foreigners.” The only threat to Philippine territory is the U.S. and its Filipino proxies.

 

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