By Prof. Anna Malindog-Uy

 

LAST July 30, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin III dropped by Manila for the Philippines-US 2+2 ministerial dialogue, the fourth such talks since it began in 2012. This is unprecedented because it’s the first time that talks have been held in Manila. Indeed, the PH-US 2+2 dialogue has set the stage for continued and expanded military cooperation, reflecting a strengthened military and defense alliance between the two sides. Before visiting Manila, the two US officials also held talks in Tokyo with their counterpart top Japanese defense and diplomatic officials on July 28 to bolster military and defense cooperation.

Obviously, the US-Philippine 2+2 dialogue and the US-Japanese meetings are intended to strengthen US alliances and partnerships in the Asia-Pacific region. These are significant steps by the US in bolstering military and diplomatic ties. This is part of the broader US counterbalance and containment strategy against China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. This agenda underscores the intricate and often unstated geopolitical maneuvering that shapes the current dynamics in the region and aligns with US paranoia while grappling with the reality that it’s losing its hegemony in the region.

$500M military funding

Moreover, a particularly concerning outcome of the recent PH-US 2+2 talks is Washington’s pledge to extend $500 million in military financing to the Philippines to bolster the PH-US military alliance amid escalating tensions in the disputed South China Sea and the broader Indo-Pacific region.

This development raises critical questions about the implications of this additional US military funding for the Philippines. What strategic interests might the US pursue with this financial support? Are conditions or expectations tied to the $500 million that could influence Philippine defense policies or regional strategy or compromise the country’s sovereignty and independence/autonomy? These questions deserve a clear explanation from the Marcos government.

Deployed US missile system

Amid the escalating US efforts to enhance its military presence in the Philippines, deploying the Mid-Range Capability (MRC) missile system, known as the Typhon System, represents a highly contentious development. This system is capable of launching Standard Missile 6 and Tomahawk missiles. The deployment of these missiles on Philippine soil has provoked significant unease from Russia and China, which perceive it as a provocative escalation in the region’s military, security and defense dynamics and landscape.

Consequently, Filipinos should seek greater transparency regarding the missile system deployed in the country. Key questions include: who controls these systems — the Philippines or the US? Such inquiries deserve thorough attention and clear explanations from President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his government to address public concerns vis-a-vis the nation’s strategic interests and sovereignty.

China has vehemently opposed the deployment, citing concerns over regional tensions and potential misjudgments. At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed significant concern and criticism regarding the US deployment of the MRC missile system in the Philippines. Indeed, China and Russia’s reaction highlights the broader implications of the increasing and strengthening of US military presence in the Philippines, particularly in the context of the US-China rivalry, competition and impact on global security.​

Despite all these, President Marcos imprudently and unwisely insisted that the deployment aligns with the Philippines’ goals of strengthening its defense capabilities, preparing for potential threats, and enhancing its military readiness in light of the geopolitical situation in the disputed South China Sea and the broader Indo-Pacific region. Even Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo, in a press conference last July 30, made a blunder with a misguided and somewhat naive statement, saying that the US mid-range capability missile system deployed in the Philippines is meant for the Philippines’ own defensive or deterrent capabilities, not for any offensive purposes, so it would not lead to an arms race.

Manalo’s naivete about the concept of deterrence concerning a potential arms race in the region is quite blatant, which begs whether he understands the geopolitical dynamics at play. Reliance on military deterrence can spur arms races, where one side’s accumulation of weaponry and military advancements leads to similar actions by the other, as adversaries may feel compelled to build up their military capabilities in response. These rivals may perceive their adversaries’ increased military capabilities as a direct threat. This can create an atmosphere of mistrust and suspicion among the parties involved, increasing the likelihood of miscalculations or unintended confrontations, leading to increased regional or global tensions and the possibility of conflict. This scenario embodies the concept of a “security dilemma,” where actions taken by one state to increase its security can lead to increased insecurity among other states.

In contrast to Manalo’s seemingly simplistic view, deploying the US mid-range missile system in the Philippines clearly indicates offensive intent rather than defensive posturing. Historical patterns of missile deployments, such as those during the Cold War, consistently highlight the pursuit of strategic superiority and deterrence through offensive capabilities. This trend often precipitates an arms race, shifting regional focus from defensive measures to the buildup of offensive military power. US deployment in the Philippines similarly signals a strategic move to enhance power projection and deterrence through potential offensive operations, reinforcing a more aggressive stance in the region.

Hence, US adversaries can undoubtedly interpret the deployment of missile systems in the Philippines as an offensive posture due to its strategic implications, enhanced military capabilities, geopolitical dynamics, historical context and diplomatic signals. While these systems can serve defensive purposes, their potential for force projection, deterrence through strength and influence on regional security dynamics underscores their offensive nature.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while military deterrence aims to prevent conflict by showcasing strength, it often inadvertently leads to an arms race, increased regional and global tensions, economic strain and a heightened risk of military conflict. On the other hand, the additional military financing from the US to the Philippines amounting to $500 million, while enabling the acquisition of more advanced military equipment, underscores the escalating US military presence in the region. This continued militarization of the Philippines heightens regional tensions and the imminent risk of escalation and potential conflict. Such a scenario necessitates careful navigation and strategic management by all parties involved. The potential for an arms race becomes more pronounced as the focus on military alliances intensifies, leading to a dangerous escalation among countries in the Indo-Pacific region. This situation calls for a balanced approach considering defense needs and the broader implications for regional stability and peace.

In retrospect, reflecting on the US efforts to enhance US-Philippine military, defense and security cooperation as a means of projecting its power in the region, it is clear that this strategy may cause unease among China, Russia and other regional players. Hence, the Marcos administration should strive to strike a balanced approach. Effective diplomacy and clear communication are crucial for the Philippines to ensure that its military, defense and security cooperation with the US is not perceived as a direct threat to China, Russia or other regional countries. By doing so, the Philippines can avoid unnecessary escalation and help maintain regional security, peace and stability.

   

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