By Adolfo Quizon Paglinawan

 

Part 8: Where Brawner sees war, China sees diplomacy

I think it is fairly safe to say today that it is no longer the present government that is determining our national policy but the Pentagon in Washington DC.

A spokesman is supposed to be speaking for a principal.

That principal is President Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr., not only as head-of state, not only as chief executive of the government, but as commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of the Philippines.

The “policy pronouncement” proving that we have a puppet government slipped out of the mouth of Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad, spokesman for the National Task Force on the West Philippine Sea (NTF-WPS), when he confirmed to the Manila Times in an interview that “talks are underway to regularize warship transits across the Taiwan Strait, a development he hinted could lead to formal joint military activities between the two neighbors and thus reshape the strategic calculus in the region.”

Trinidad continued his gaffe, “…in the West Philippine Sea, we must maintain presence. We must ensure that the Filipino people understand that the government is there for them, that the military is protecting what is ours.”

This is a flat lie. In the platoon of surveys conducted by Pulse Asia, protecting our territory and sovereignty earned only 5% in the most urgent national concern of the Filipino people.

Trinidad’s messianic complex was utterly out-of-place, if it were not a policy from the top.

The Manila Times correctly observed where Trinidad was taking the conversation to relaxed and under no pressure (watch the video) – While the Philippines has historically upheld a “One China” policy, its growing security ties with the United States and other like-minded partners have placed it on a delicate balancing act.

The two neighbors Trinidad was referring to here is not China and the Philippines, but Taiwan and the Philippines.

The Manila Times went on saying that the prospect of Philippine-Taiwan military activities, even if limited to information sharing, patrol coordination, or humanitarian assistance, would most likely be viewed by Beijing as provocative but Trinidad stressed that Philippine defense efforts remain anchored in lawful, transparent actions. “We are not looking for a fight, but we are not backing down either. What is ours is ours.”

You are wrong spokesman Trinidad, our relation with the Taiwanese is confined to economic and humanitarian issues only. That is why we have a Manila Economic Cooperation Office in Taipei.

You are not defending our own, you are not protecting but putting our people in clear and present danger of not only of harm and devastation.

You have even revealed the context of the plan that is already underway and your actions: “There is now more coordination, more collaboration, and more communication among partners. That is a very important message to everyone who challenges the rules-based international order.”

Like Jay Tarriela of the coast guard and Jonathan Malaya of the security council, you have even become a parrot for rules-based order of the United States. Your disclosure is outrageously provocative and cannot be defensive.

When you invoked the people, that slip of the tongue became not just a military sound-bite but a political statement reserved for civilian authorities; it manifested not just a foreign policy whose chief architect is the President – but a national policy reserved at the level of the Congress of the Philippines, under Article VI, Section 23(1) of the Philippine Constitution.

When you involved Taiwan in the discussion, you have just declared war on the Peoples Republic of China.

That cannot be a balancing act. It is a gross violation of the Constitution renouncing war as an instrument of national policy.

It is an outright violation of our Constitutionally-mandated “independent foreign policy” but the “One China” treaty with China, establishing in 1975 diplomatic relations between our two countries. The fact that you were inserting another dubious juridical personality on sensitive matters of security, at the expense of a formal treaty ally, is shameless violation of international convention.

Your narrative is impossible to be brainchild of a Filipino, evidence that an alien state has been lording over our internal affairs in broad daylight, which makes your President and commander-in-chief impeachable for a treasonous act.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China sent Trinidad and this administration to Political Science 101 when it declared: “Taiwan is a province of China and an inalienable part of the Chinese territory. The Taiwan question is at the core of China’s core interest.

“The One-China principle is a prevailing consensus of the international community and the political bedrock of China-Philippines relations. China firmly opposes any form of official interaction between its Taiwan region and countries having diplomatic ties with China.

“We urge the Philippine side to abide by the one-China principle, stop any form of official interaction with the Taiwan authorities, and stop sending wrong signals to “Taiwan independence” separatist forces. We call on relevant officials of the Philippines to refrain from making provocations on the Taiwan question.

“Those who play with fire will perish by it.”

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has also summoned Philippine Ambassador to Beijing Jaime Flor Cruz to explain Trinidad’s statement.

Cat out of the bag

With the leak coming from a two-star rear admiral, however, the international community paid little attention to the disavowal of foreign affairs spokesperson Teresita Daza, “The Philippines and China maintain open lines of communication through regular diplomatic channels, and our exchanges are sustained and constant. The two sides regularly exchange frank views over various issues, including on Taiwan, through these channels, and will continue to do so.”

There is really nothing new about what the Philippine military has been doing since February 2, 2023, which is consistently a case build-up to the prognosis of Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief of Staff Romeo Brawner last April 1, 2025 asking Philippine northern troops to prepare for a possible war with China over Taiwan.

Against an unsuspecting nation, our re-enrollment in the American chessboard formally began that day in 2023 with the signing-up for four additional sites to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), after U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo and Under-Secretary Defense Officer-in-Charge Carlito Galvez Jr.

The idea, they claimed, would allow for more rapid support for humanitarian and climate-related disasters in the Philippines. The “real McCoy” was snuck into verbiage of “other shared challenges”, which actually is to house American troops and their equipment in Philippine military camps located in strategic areas of the country.

The American military strategy that we have already revealed in various forums, has long been in the works, as “Agile Combat Employment (ACE)”, that was conceptualized in 2010 and tested in “exercises” in the artic and tropical regions since 2017, diffusing air force presence from big bases like Clark and Subic to smaller but many sites which made the Philippines ideal because it is an archipelago.

There’s nothing classified about this.

You can read its primer at https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12694#:~:text=To%20inform%20and%20shape%20its,survivability%20while%20generating%20combat%20power.%22

Its rationale is that the United States’ seven fleets have outlived their usefulness.  It worked from Japan’s destruction of Pearl Harbor in World War II to American dominance of the oceans until the twentieth century.

But today, the US can no longer approach China’s eastern and southern coastlines by as far as 3,000 miles, which is the distance to Guam, without being decimated by the Peoples Liberation Army Rocket Force.

Ergo, ACE or EDCA installations in the Philippines that is only 250 miles to mainland China.

The handwriting has long been posted on the wall. Our independent foreign policy has gone south with our return to subservience to a former colonial master. This time however, it is with the eyes of our leaders, wide open.

Echo Mechanism

TOKYO May 15, 2023 – Secretary for Foreign Affairs Enrique A. Manalo participated in the Munich Leaders Meeting (MLM) and engage in policy discussions on Philippines-Japan Strategic Partnership and the rules-based order.

SINGAPORE June 4, 2023 – Philippines Senior Undersecretary and Officer-in-Charge of the Department of National Defense Carlito Galvez called for rules-based order amid tensions in South China Sea, before defense ministers and officials from 41 countries at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Shangri-la Dialogue. 

MANILA August 2, 2023- Department of National Defense (DND) Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. reiterated the importance of rules-based international order following the courtesy call of the Japan-Philippines Parliamentary Friendship League (JPPFL) headed by its chair Moriyama Hiroshi.

MANILA November 27, 2023 – Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief General Romeo Brawner Jr. raised the possibility of multilateral patrols in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) together with the country’s other allies next year. “(This is) a demonstration of a collective effort that is being done by like-minded nations” aimed at emphasizing rules-based international order.

BRUSSELS February 2, 2024 – Secretary for Foreign Affairs Enrique A. Manalo called for all countries reaffirming support for rules-based international order at the 3rd European Union Indo-Pacific Ministerial Forum (EUIPMF) held in Brussels, Belgium.

VIANTIANE June 18, 2024 –Undersecretary Teresa Lazaro underscored the Philippines’ continuing commitment to ASEAN’s Community building efforts, during a series of ASEAN Senior Officials’ Meetings (SOM) to safeguard the the Post-War rules-based international order, which she said is under threat due to unilateral, illegal and coercive actions in regional and global flashpoints.

ZURICH November 15, 2024 – DFA Undersecretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro outlined the Philippines’ strategic vision for the Indo-Pacific region, emphasizing a commitment to a rules-based international order during  a roundtable discussion co-organized by the Center for Security Studies (CSS) and the Asia Society Switzerland.

WASHINGTIN January 24, 2025 – Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, along with Philippine Ambassador to the US Jose Manuel Romualdez, met with newly appointed US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz at the White House yesterday, reaffirming the enduring alliance between the Philippines and the US. Waltz expressed his appreciation of President Marcos’ efforts to uphold freedom of navigation and a rules-based international order.

MUNICH 14 February 2025 – Reaffirming the Philippines’ commitment to a rules-based international order, Secretary for Foreign Affairs Enrique A. Manalo engaged in high-level discussions with global leaders and policymakers to advance regional security and multilateral cooperation during the 61^st  Munich Security Conference in Bavaria’s capital.

MANILA March 8 2025 – DFA spokesperson Ma. Teresita Daza announced Friday that British Foreign Affairs Secretary David Lammy is visiting Manila to meet Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo, to promote peace, stability, and a rules-based international order.”

MAKATI April 27, 2025 –Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo underscored the need for middle-income countries (MICs) like the Philippines to adhere to the international rules-based order to fulfill its potential of becoming “pacemakers” of the global economy and international peace security.

MANILA, May 3, 2025 – National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano warmly welcomed the signing of the Status of Visiting Forces Agreement (SoVFA) between the Philippines and New Zealand, as an “important milestone” in the “growing strategic and defense partnership” between both countries in upholding a rules-based international order, promoting regional peace and stability, and strengthening cooperation in security and humanitarian efforts.

MANILA March 14, 2025 –Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has positioned on the frontlines of China’s expanding influence in Southeast Asia, as Canada’s key regional partner in upholding international law and the rules-based order. He has also increased Philippine participation in U.S.-led partnerships aimed at bolstering joint military and maritime operations to counter Beijing’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea.

Problem starts from the top

Yes, you read it right, our president does not know the difference between international law and rules-based international order.

Rules-based order is not international law that is the totality of unwritten customary laws and written conventions or treaties throughout history.

In an editorial published by the Cambridge University Press last February 2023, it clarifies that RBO is not international law.

“RBO is an alternative regime outside the discipline of international law which inevitably challenges and threatens international law… it may be seen as a competing order which seeks to impose the interpretation of international law that best advances the interests of the West, particularly those of the United States to ensure its dominance.

It is the will of the United States and its western allies that it applies often in contravention of international law. It is incompatible to peaceful resolution of disputes, as the west enforces RBO by force to the extent of hot war, onerous sanctions as in trade wars and blackmail reciprocities.

Since 1798, the US has engaged in 469 military interventions.

From that year to the end of the cold war in 1991, after 218 conflicts or at a ratio of 1.3 a year, the world expected an end to the hot wars.

In pursuit of the rules-based international order, the US engagements in wars, however, accelerated even faster, between 1991 and 2022, with 251 conflicts ina shorter time frame or a ratio of 8.1 a year.

(This does not include the Gaza war that erupted on October, 2023.)

Taking the next rules-based road, therefore, brings the Philippines to be the next Ukraine.

To be continued, next : What makes Sandy Cay complicated.

   

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