By Adolfo Quizon Paglinawan

 

China’s Two Session summits, or lianghui, have been concluded in Beijing.  This is the biggest event of the country’s political calendar as it set out the policy priorities for the rest of the year. 

All aspects of Chinese life were discussed from the economy to employment to health and housing. Foreign diplomacy, the military and dealing with the uncertainties of external headwinds, were also tackled.

Contrast in governance

Last year, during the China’s Third Plenum in July, I discussed the unique way China democracy works.

China’s model of a bottoms-up governance, executed by men and women who earn their positions through meritocracy, may be a little difficult for the Filipino to understand, because in the Philippines, we have a trickle-down structure.

We elect our representatives to do the thinking for us, so policies that roll out of our legislature often incentivize powerful politicians and our ruling elite. The masses enjoy only whatever crumbs are left over.

To get the pulse of the populace, opinion surveys are fixed merely to affirm the vested interest of government officials. There is no effective avenue to recall bad policies and bad policymakers.

For example, the Marcos government has weighed heavily on protecting our territories against foreigners which is only 5% of the people’s concern, while it ignores the much greater 72% that says the gnawing imperative is to curb inflation and improve our economy.

The executive and legislative branches are not attentive to people’s most urgent national concerns? Power-tripping has become commonplace.

Sky to the cellar

Little wonder how in 70 years, we sank from being the second richest country in Asia, next only to Japan, to the basketcase that we are today.

According to Deepseek, this complex issue is rooted in the following historical, political, and structural factors:

1. Political Instability and Governance Issues

• 1972–1981: The declaration of martial law by Ferdinand Marcos led to authoritarian rule. The economy stagnated, and debt ballooned due to excessive borrowing for infrastructure projects that often, benefited the allies of Marcos.
• Post-Marcos Instability: After Marcos was ousted in 1986, the country experienced political instability, frequent leadership changes, and weak governance, hindering consistency in economic policies.

2. Crony Capitalism and Corruption

The Marcos era entrenched crony capitalism, where businesses close to the ruling elite received preferential treatment, stifling competition and innovation. Corruption remains a persistent issue, deterring foreign investment and efficient resource allocation.

3. Debt Crisis

The Philippines accumulated massive foreign debt during the Marcos era, much of which was mismanaged or siphoned off. By the 1980s, the country faced a severe debt crisis, leading to austerity measures and limited funds for development.

4. Weak Industrial Base

Unlike other Asian countries like South Korea, Taiwan,   or Singapore, the Philippines failed to develop a strong manufacturing sector. Reliance on agriculture and raw material exports left the economy vulnerable to global commodity price fluctuations.

5. Land Reform and Inequality

   Land reform efforts were largely ineffective, leaving the agricultural sector inefficient and dominated by large landowners. This contributed to rural poverty and inequality, limiting domestic consumption and economic growth.

6. Brain Drain

The Philippines has experienced significant emigration of skilled workers (e.g., nurses, engineers, and IT professionals) due to better opportunities abroad. While remittances support the economy, the loss of talent hampers long-term development.

7. Natural Disasters and Geopolitical Challenges

The Philippines is prone to natural disasters like typhoons, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions, which disrupt economic activity and require significant resources for recovery. Additionally, internal conflicts (e.g., insurgencies in Mindanao) have deterred investment.

8. Global Economic Shifts

  The rise of other Asian economies (e.g., China, South Korea, and Vietnam) in manufacturing and technology sectors outpaced the Philippines, which failed to adapt and diversify its economy.

9. Education and Infrastructure Deficiencies

The education system has struggled to produce a workforce equipped for modern industries, while inadequate infrastructure (e.g., roads, ports, and power) has hindered economic efficiency and competitiveness.

10. Policy Inconsistencies

Frequent changes in economic policies, coupled with protectionism and bureaucratic inefficiencies, have discouraged foreign investment and stifled entrepreneurship.

CN goes north

Given this scenario, it should pay well for the Philippines to learn from China.

When I visited China ten years ago, I found out that Deng Xiao Ping borrowed some economic management model from Singapore. The Suzhou Industrial Park (SIP) pioneered in China’s infrastructure planning and modernization, achieving remarkable results in promoting high-quality urban and industrial development over the past 30 years, since it was established in 1994.

Besides adaptability to change, I learned that what powers China, given a population 12x that of the Philippines but able to liberate 800 million of its people from abject poverty in 30 years, rises from its unique socialistic governmental structure.

China’s Two Sessions explain the dynamic source for that absorptive capacity is a people-based engagement from the bottom to the top.

The “two sessions” are the annual meetings of China’s top legislature, the National People’s Congress (NPC), and the top political advisory body, the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). Both bodies serve five-year terms.

The first is at the bottom – the CPPCC is the important institution of the Communist Party of China-led multiparty cooperation made up of about 2,000 grassroots representatives,  whose job is to tell the government what their needs are at their respective commune or village levels, and how well or not, policies are working on the ground and make suggestions for appropriate changes to existing laws.

The CPPCC specializes as political consultative body in China’s whole-process, whole government people’s democracy. Its members advise on major national policies and key issues spanning economic, political, cultural, social and ecological development.

The second is at the top – The NPC is the highest state organ of power made up of 3,000 political elites who outline new laws and policies for the year. In addition to its duty as the top legislature, it wields the power to elect national leaders, and approve government budgets and national development plans, among others.

The annual sessions of these two bodies usually run in parallel and take place around the same time, and because both bodies hold in parallel two plenary sessions each year, problems do not become endemic and solutions are effectuated at the most opportuned time.

What are the major issues at the “two sessions”?

The first is the annual growth target. The figure, set to be unveiled in the government work report at the start of the NPC session, is among the most anticipated topics every year.

Alongside the GDP target, the government work report is expected to outline other key economic indicators, including the deficit-to-GDP ratio and inflation target. It will also set development priorities for the year.

A plan for national economic and social development of the year, as well as the government budgets, will also be reviewed. These provide a clear picture of China’s policy priorities, development goals, and fiscal strategies.

During its annual session, the NPC also enacts or amends laws, particularly those of significant importance. These include the Constitution, the Civil Code, the Supervision Law, and the Foreign Investment Law.

This year, China’s leaders are working to make the economy more resilient in the face of new trade tariffs as well as the general global uncertainty being created by the Trump administration, responding to boost domestic consumption, increase innovation and attract more foreign direct investment.

They’re also working to prevent social instability by boosting incomes providing 12 million new jobs and boosting support for the elderly as well as parents with young children.

Beijing has set a growth Target of 5% for 2025 and it will also increase its budget deficit from 3 to 4%, the highest level in more than three decades, as it ramps up spending to counter the effects of rising US tariffs.

Safeguarding national security is also its priority and the government will increase military spending by 7.2% that’s $245 billion that will go towards upgrading and strengthening the People’s Liberation Army.

The priorities are set from the relevant existential needs of the people and the entire attention of the nation, the government and the people, the public and private sector, hone its attention to achieving set goals.

PH goes south

The present Philippine scenario is a dark contrast.

The premeditated and meticulously planned extrajudicial rendition of former President Duterte to the International Criminal Court, and following, its coverup have been the urgent priority of government from the past weeks.

In a swift manner, top government officials, turned law and order southwards, by confessing premeditation and deliberateness in weaponizing official powers, not just committing a possible crime of kidnapping, but turning over a Filipino citizen to a foreign entity in violation of the country’s sovereignty.

(Alarmed that this event might cause further destabilization of world peace, China warned the International Criminal Court against “politicization” and “double standards, ” foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said “China has noted the relevant information and is closely monitoring the development of the situation.”)

In a flirty exchange, Secretary of Interior and Local Government Jonvic Remulla sang like a canary, when interviewed by seasoned TV anchor Pinky Webb, implicating the Secretary of Defense Gilbert Teodoro and the National Security Adviser Eduardo Año, as members of a small core group that plotted and executed the plan. This was most credible because President Marcos himself in a press conference, one hour after he ordered former president Rodrigo Duterte whisked into a private jet bound for The Hague, announced that he okayed the plan to proceed as of 6:30 am of March 11.

We now have a nation with government totally alienated from the people, and it may well be bound to a regime change even before the 2028 presidential elections.

This brazen and shameless conspiracy dealt a fatal blow to the prospect of the Marcos administration, to rebounding from an already to solve our present problems for the past two years. Its inability to curb inflation has eaten up a major portion of the consumers disposable income. Worse, crony and oligarchy-controlled utilities are increasing monthly bills.

No new money is coming in because the United States’s hold on the Philippine military has blocked Chinese inflows and has created a situation that has led to the stoppage of key infrastructure projects. Marcos thought this would make the Americans and Japanese take over the projects, ironically, no other country has come to the plate.

The previous months, we saw resignations from the Cabinet, punctuated by discovery of mass resignations of 400 engineers from the transportation department, a 24% deficit in our tourism targets for the previous year, a rice emergency facing agriculture, scandals involving the Philippine Congress abusing its power of the purse padding pork barrel and providing for cash-stimulus packages for distribution of the administration candidates to its supporters in the coming midterm election in May, the politically-motivated impeachment of the Vice President. 

Since July 1, 2022 when Marcos took over as president, we saw one trillion of taxpayers’ money drained from the National Treasury to fund ghost flood control projects. As if this were not enough, last month a newly-constructed bridge up north, collapsed, because of sheer incompetence of the Department of Public Works and Highways, clearing passage of vehicular traffic to the infrastructure that has not yet been issued a Certificate of Acceptance.

Recovery Efforts and Challenges

While the Philippines has made some progress in recent years, with GDP growth and improvements in governance, challenges remain. The Philippines’ economic decline is a result of decades of poor governance, corruption, structural weaknesses, and missed opportunities, compounded by external challenges. Reversing this trend for sustained economic recovery requires comprehensive reforms and long-term strategic planning.

As the China’s Two-Sessions, or lianghui, round up setting the policy agenda for regaining economic growth for an already robust economy and charting a course through the evolving trade war and hi-tech race with the US, I don’t see any prospects of the Philippines benefitting from it, given the internal turmoil Marcos has brought the country to.

We are now an emaciated country locked inside its chosen leader’s stupor. Ladies and gentlemen, we have better fastened our seatbelts for an imminent crash.

   

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