By Adolfo Quizon Paglinawan

 

      Today I will do things a little differently. Instead of expressing my analysis, I will tell someone else’s story.

Last week, an American economist and public policy analyst who is also a professor at Columbia University, gave an unconventional address to the parliament of the European Union. The next day the headlines screamed: “Jeffrey Sachs’ explosive address at the EU Parliament sends shockwaves across Europe!”

His thoughts expressed in 90 minutes, I believe provided the security environment for our topic today. Let me just take home some points.

Point of Departure

First on the matter of stretching the Cold War after it ended 1991.

Sachs said, “The NATO enlargement, as you know, started in 1999 with Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. Russia protested, but of course to no avail. Then George Bush Jr came in when 9/11 occurred and the US decided on 20 September 2001 that it would launch seven wars in five years. You can listen to General Wesley Clark’s online talk about that.”

Second on the matter of what proceeded from that construct.

The economic expert added: “Viktor Yanukovych was elected in 2010 in Ukraine on the platform of neutrality. Russia had no territorial interests or designs in Ukraine at all. What Russia was negotiating was a 25-year lease to 2042 for a naval base, that’s it. This idea that Putin is rebuilding the Russian Empire is childish propaganda,” the economist added.

We move next to the elephant in the room.

He said, “The United States decided this man must be overthrown. It’s called a regime change operation. There have been about 100 of them carried out by the US. That’s what the CIA does for a living. Okay, please know it’s a very unusual kind of foreign policy, but in America, if you don’t like the other side you don’t negotiate with them, you try to overthrow them, preferably covertly. If it doesn’t work covertly, you do it overtly. That’s the only foreign policy explanation the American people are ever given anywhere.”

Fourth, woe to those who adopted the unipolar logic. Sach continues:

“I’m not anti-Ukraine. I’m pro-Ukraine completely. I had a track record with the Ukrainians. I advised the Ukrainians. I begged the Ukrainians saying save your lives, save your sovereignty, save your territory, be neutral, don’t listen to the Americans. I repeated to them the famous adage of Henry Kissinger: that to be an enemy of the United States is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.”

Fifth, he echoed to the EU parliament, the same message:

“Okay, so let me repeat that for Europe: to be an enemy of the United States is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal. President Trump does not want a losing hand, this is why it is more likely than not, this war will end because Trump and Putin will agree to end the war. If Europe does all its great warmongering, it doesn’t matter, the war is ending so get it out of your system. Ukraine is a loser. The one that will be saved by the negotiations taking place right now is Ukraine. Second is Europe.”

Multipolarity

Ladies and gentlemen, the world is entering an era of heightened tensions and uncertainty as it shifts from US-led unipolarity toward multipolarity.

The Munich Security Report 2025 notes that while the future remains unclear — whether dominated by US-China rivalry or evolving into a broader system — the process of “multipolarization” continues to gain momentum.

According to its authors of the report, multipolarization is not only evident in the growing influence of emerging powers but also in widening ideological divides, as liberal values lose their dominance both within nations and across the global system.

The report further states “Political and economic liberalism, which shaped the unipolar post–Cold War period, is no longer the only game in town. It is increasingly contested from within, as demonstrated by the rise of nationalist populism in many liberal democracies.”

The report also suggests that Donald Trump’s return to the White House could accelerate this shift, signaling the end of “Pax Americana.” It notes that Trump views the current international order or what is touted as the rules-based order, as unfavorable, and would likely prioritize US interests and China containment, while potentially straining relationships with allies.

That the new American president has adopted multipolarity is no longer a signal.

In his first in-person meeting with European counterparts two weeks ago, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ruled out a NATO membership for Ukraine. He also said “unrealistic” to aim for a return to Ukraine’s borders as they were before 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and supported separatists who took over swats of eastern Ukraine. This appears to be a fait accompli as Putin said three days ago that he is open to offering the US access to rare minerals, including from Russian-occupied Ukraine. Further, Hegseth expects the US to assume only the oversight role as the Trump administration works to shift responsibility for Ukrainian and European security to NATO and the European Union.

Way for EU

So, Sach advises Europe: “Don’t go to Kiev, go to Moscow. Discuss with your counterparts. Are you kidding, you’re Europe, you’re 450 million people, you’re a 20 trillion economy. You should be the main economic trading partner of Russia. It’s natural by the way. Europe has to open negotiations directly with Russia as well, because the United States will quickly lose interest and you’re going to be living with Russia for the next thousands of years.

“Russia is not going to invade Europe. This is the fundamental point. It may get up to the Dnipro River, but it’s not going to invade Europe. Of course, there are real issues. The main issue for Russia, as a major force and the largest nuclear power in the world, has been US unipolarity from the beginning. Now that this is seemingly ending.

“Let me just say with respect to China, China is not an enemy, China is just a success story. That’s why it is viewed by the United States as an enemy because China is a bigger economy than the United States.”

Sachs moves from tripolarity to multipolarity.

You know when the world talks about great powers right now? They talk about US, Russia, China and I would like to add India…and I would really like to include Europe, and Africa as an African Union.

Foreign policy and diplomacy

“In my understanding, what has befallen Europe, not only in the Ukraine crisis, but Serbia in 1999, the wars in the Middle East, including Iraq, Syria, the wars in Africa, including Sudan, Somalia, Libya – these are wars that the United States led and caused for more than 30 years now to be precise.

“Europe has paid a heavy price for this, because Europe has not had a foreign policy during this period that I can figure out. No voice, no unity, no clarity, no European interest. Only American loyalty.”

“I issue two reports each year, and one is on “world happiness” report and 18 of the top 20 countries are European. This is the highest quality of life in the whole world. So you need your own policy to protect that quality of life. The United States weighs way down.

“The other is the annual sustainable development report, and almost of the top countries are European. Except in geopolitics. So, you need your own foreign policy, not for 27 of you but for the whole Europe. But you cannot have that unless you have your own security structure.”

Sachs was of course referring to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, OSCE not NATO.

Europe lost its voice in 2008 when the US thought of enlarging its unipolarity through NATO from Brussels to Vladivostok, step by step. 

Thereupon, Sach said, “Any place without a US base in the world is an enemy. Neutrality is a dirty world in the US lexicon. If you are neutral, you would be subversive.

“Finlandization landed Finland number one in the happiness report year after year, rich, successful, happy and secure. That’s pre-NATO, when Sweden, Finland and Austria were neutral. Smart. When Ukraine was neutral. Smart. If you two superpowers, keep them apart a little bit, especially when one, the US is pushing its nose into the other one.”

“Could someone in NATO please stop talking about more war, and could NATO stop talking for Europe. And Europe stop thinking it’s NATO.

“This is the first absolute point. There has to be a structure where Europe can speak as Europe and as one, even with some dissent. It can’t be by unanimity. You can do a lot better if you negotiate directly.”

Sachs makes his second point, “Your diplomats should be diplomats, not secretaries of war. A diplomat is a special king of talent. A diplomat is trained to sit together with the other side and to listen, to shake hands, to smile and to be pleasant. It is very hard and it’s a skill, training. It is a profession. It is not a game. You need that kind of diplomacy that means going to Moscow, inviting your Russian counterparts to Europe, discussing common grounds.:

And if I may add talking to the Chinese and Asean, as well.

Asean and the Philippines

Sachs continues, “I want Europe for instance to have diplomacy with Asean, and spend a lot of time with Asean countries.

“I told Asean many years ago, make a green deal and talk to the European so that you have this wonderful relationship in trade, investment, technology. Last year Asean announced a green deal. What did Europe about it? Nothing? It said, sorry, we are in the Ukraine war, thank you. The prospects are very positive if we construct the peace. This is basic, if we want to avoid conflict,” Sachs concludes.

As part of Asean, let me now bring this home to the Philippines. It is pathetic that as world goes north to multipolarity, our leaders have chosen to go south to unipolarity.

Our Ambassador to Washington Babes Romualdez has been beating his chest that he was able to negotiate that the US unfreeze $336 million US dollars of military aid to the Philippines. First that aid was chopped by $164 million as it used to be $500 before Trump assumed office.

Loss #2: That assistance will be in kind. No cash will not enter the Philippines. The money remains in the US lining the pockets of some arms contractor in Washington DC.

Loss#3:  It is not a grant, but foreign military credits, in short lend-lease basis increasing our foreign debt. Albeit soft, it is also not interest-free.

I also would like to say that $336 million seems to coincide with the cost of the Typhon Weapon System. I hope not because that system is only for launching and guiding missiles, prominently Tomahawks subsonics that cost from $3 million per stick. Romualdez’ enthusiasm betrays the veneer that some locals are expecting a fat commission.

The story of Europe and Ukraine under a unipolar setting as critiqued by Jeffrey Sachs, should serve as an admonition to President Bongbong Marcos, to return to the independent foreign policy of his predecessor, start mending the fences with China and Russia, reaffirm Asean of our treaties with them on neutrality and non-nuclearization, and start development diplomacy initiatives with Europe, India and Africa.

Our gross domestic product, high at 5.6% last year is illusory. Sucking up to the Americans for the past 32 months has sunk our purchasing power parity as incomes fell short of containing inflation, sending 63% of our people to perceive themselves as poor, the highest in 20 years.

As we speak, we are on a rice emergency, as obviously we have no food security from within, which should have been this government’s first priority rather than inventing a mythical “West Philippine Sea” to fish for false flags with China, proxying for US zero-sum and obsolete unipolar interests.

The bus of opportunities has long left the station.  Jeffrey Sach’s wake-up call to Europe applies to us, spot-on. Thank you and good day.

   

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