ACPSSII Position Paper / Herman Tiu Laurel

The Arbitration Panel case in 2014 was the first major use of lawfare on the PH dispute with China over territorial and EEZ questions, it not only accomplished zero, gained not an inch of territory but created a grievous loss of historically recognized territorial claim that the Treaty of Paris established and continues to damage the PH’s diplomatic standing in the ASEAN and among the Global Majority, wrecking Philippine economic development prospect.

The bankruptcy of the “Lawfare”.

In the course of litigating the SCS dispute at the arbitration panel at The Hague and the 2016 awarding arch proponent of the case against China, Justice Antonio Carpio assured Filipinos repeatedly that “China will be forced to comply.” Ten years after the filing of the case and eight years after the “award” nothing of the sort has transpired while China has tightened even more its legitimacy and control of the disputed areas.

The arbitration lawfare failed for ten years hence the Filipino proponents, proxies of the real engineers of the anti-China lawfare the U.S., at a loss after the total collapse of the case introduces Phase II of the lawfare and the puppet President Bongbong Marcos that the official government media announced, “PBBM inks 2 laws reinforcing PH rights over its maritime zones,” acts that are unenforceable and ignored internationally.

Escalation

In between the lawfare initiative the U.S. and its Filipino proxies escalated the situation with kinetic “cognitive warfare,” starting February 2023 with maritime provocations aimed at baiting the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) into police action ranging from laser light warnings reported falsely as “military grade” to cause injury to Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) men, PCG crossing paths of CCG ships reported as “ramming” by CCG, and water cannoning incidents.

The kinetic cognitive warfare named “Operation Myusho” initiated by U.S. special ops group Sealight the Americans aimed to “inflict reputational cost on China” and “build international support” against China. All the aims have failed as China’s prestige continues to rise within the region in ASEAN and Asia, and globally through BRICS Plus, among the Global Majority in APEC, G20, and in the United Nations.

China’s actions in intercepting PCG “resupply missions” are prevention of U.S. construction of “Forward Operating Bases” hidden behind PH violations of “no construction materials” resupply mission to various shoals, and forced entry into “protected lagoon” of the Scarborough Shoal, a clandestine PH Navy resupply operation where a PH sailor lost a thumb and, lastly, the BRP Teresa Magbanua as a second artificially grounded ship at Sabina Shoal.

This “assertive transparency” also know as “transparency initiative” has similarly failed.

China ready to “Meet Halfway.”

China has maintained its posture of continuing openness offering to “meet halfway” at every tense and critical juncture to resolve issues. The Philippines has been compelled to close its doors and windows to China’s goodwill by the “Pivot to the U.S.” of Bongbong Marcos. The repeated rejection of China’s goodwill and joint development offers will just consign the Philippines to the backwaters of ASEAN and advance U.S. plans for Ukraine 2.0 in Asia.

ASEAN success with China

The path taken by other ASEAN stakeholders in the South China Sea rows has been peaceful and productive dialogue that leads to Win-Win solutions: Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto just signed on November 10, 2024 a $10 billion deal with President Xi Jinping that promised a “common understanding on joint development in areas of overlapping claims” effectively setting aside the dispute and engaging in mutually beneficial economic endeavors.

On November 7, 2024 PM Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia, a major contender over the Spratlys, in a visit of President Xi Jinping committed to “strengthening collaboration with China beyond trade” saying, “… we view China not just as a leader of the East but as a voice for the Global South, one that champions the interests of the developing world… We look forward to your continued support, Mr. President, as your presence is critical to the success of Asean… “

In October of 2024 Vietnam another contender in the Spratlys, signed with China 10 deals ranging from agricultural cooperation too cross-border QR code payments that will further boost bilateral trade already up by 21% in the first three quarter of 2024 at $ 148 billion. The two countries cooperate to implement signed documents on railway links, modern railway development effectively.

PH isolated, bankrupted.

Left out in all of these positive developments between ASEAN countries and China is the Philippines, although it had an early start with President Duterte’s “joint oil-gas venture” with China that US Filipino proxies, principally Manuel Pangilinan and minions like Teddy “Boy” Locsin sabotaged. Since that termination of the deal, more economic projects from China have been cancelled by the Philippines, such as the four major railway projects, among others.

ASEAN exports to China in 2024 in the first eight months of 2024 increased by 10.5% despite weak Philippine exports to China falling by 9.1% year-on-year (Google AI). The Philippines lost the potential to restore the 2-million Chinese tourist arrivals attained in 2019 performing dismally in 2024 to 20-25% of 2019 levels (eurasiareview). All these deleterious impact from Bongbong Marcos’ pivot to the U.S.

PH loans for US arms.

In the midst of exploding poverty, rampant inflation, bloating national debt the Philippines is compelled by the US warmongering and badgering to expand military arms build-up and purchases by ramping up debt and borrowings. Filipinos are being duped to swallowing these wasteful acquisitions of arms, missiles and war planes no amount of which can win any war the Philippines chooses while its economy is third rate even by ASEAN standards.

There is nothing to crow about in the signing of the two new maritime laws defining the delusional claims of the Philippines, the Philippines will just continue to eat crow until the final calamitous outcome of the strategy of tension and conflict it is engaged in not only with China, but increasingly with its ASEAN neighbors over the undermining of regional peace and prosperity it is engaging with the U.S. warmonger. ###

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