By Adolfo Quizon Paglinawan

 

Part 5: A Nation with Many Strange Voices

In my last column, I said that it was wrong for Bilyonaryo.com to choose former Ambassador Jose Cuisia Jr. as poster boy to shame China for delivering only a “sliver” of its pledged economic assistance to the Duterte administration from 2016 to 2022.

It was first awkward because, he was major player on how during his watch, we lost Scarborough Shoal and as such, he could not yet be expected to have buried his hatchet against China after a humiliating faux pas.

Cuisia is also a political appointee who has no training in the art of diplomacy and geopolitics. His instincts, honed by success in the private sector and serving as president and administrator of the Social Security System and governor of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas are great credentials but not for public policy and foreign relations.

Tracking a record

As I have narrated in the preceding columns, I started to learn the ropes from the Emmanuel Pelaez school of hard knocks when I was 38 years old. It just occurred in a flash. We served the presidential campaign in the 1986 snap elections under the team of Vice-Presidential candidate Salvador Laurel and providentially, EDSA-1 happens.

Within days after Corazon C. Aquino started her presidency on February 25, 1986, she started forming her cabinet naming Laurel as secretary of foreign affairs. That same week, on Laurel’s instance, Cory summoned Pelaez, the former congressman, senator, vice-president and secretary of foreign affairs of President Diosdado Macapagal, and I, to the Cojuangco bldg. where she held temporary office before moving to Malacanang.

After 15 minutes of giving us her expectation settings, she surprised us with our appointment papers, Pelaez as ambassador, and I as his special assistant and press attaché.

Mrs. Aquino emphasized that our economy has been left by Ferdinand Marcos Sr. in severe crisis, characterized by a massive foreign debt explosion (from $2B to over $28B), soaring poverty (doubling to 60%), high unemployment, rampant cronyism creating monopolies, de-industrialization due to the closure of factories culminating in a deep recession in the mid-1980s, descriptive of a mortgaged future.

The president said we must influence the United States to use its leadership to rally for the recovery of the Philippines. Ambassador-designate Pelaez responded by bringing up the possibility of the replicating the George Marshall Plan, officially the European Recovery Program (ERP), the US initiative providing over $13 billion in aid (around $140 billion today) to rebuild Western Europe after World War II.

Upon returning to his law office at the Ortigas Center in Pasig City, Pelaez started inviting senior diplomats, former senators and the academe to start brainstorming on how this could be achieved. In another 15 days we had a position paper addressed to US President Ronald Reagan, sent to the White House with Cory’s signature.

Pelaez also handed me for personnel audit, the names of those proposed by the foreign career service to replace the stragglers that left by Benjamin “Kokoy” Romualdez in the Philippine Embassy and sift and sort who will join our diplomatic team. My first task was to facilitate the transfer of our Consul-General in Hawaii Raul Rabe, the first career diplomat who withdrew support from Marcos,  to serve as deputy chief of mission.

By April 13, or only 45 days after the EDSA People Power Revolution, we were walking out of the Dulles International Airport in Virginia to start our diplomatic mission in Washington DC.

The response of the United States was posthaste.

On April 24, President Ronald Reagan announced a new $150 million in a new U.S. initiative –  $100 million in economic and $50 million in military assistance, to nurture reforms undertaken by the government of President Corazon Aquino. The $150 million, to be drawn from existing Defense Department funds, augmented $234 million in aid already appropriated by Congress for fiscal year 1986 ($181 economic and $53 million)

For 1986 alone, that totaled $384 miilion.

Beyond this, the White House would accelerate delivery of $405.4 million in economic aid, and $50 million in military support that were already in the pipeline as of 1985, and request for another $195 million for 1987 ($95 million economic and $100 million military).

But on September 18, 1986 after President Aquino herself went to Capitol Hill to address the joint session of the US Congress, Senate Republican leader Robert Dole remarked meeting her as she stepped down from the rostrum: “You hit a home run” and her response to baseball metaphor, was “I hope the bases were loaded”.

Secretary of State George Schultz affirmed that the moral force of Cory’s speech reinforced the persistent five-months lobby by the Philippine Embassy, egging the US Congress to increase President Reagan’s request from $384 to $800 million in our favor.

Sometime after, Pelaez and Schultz would agree to use this $800 million as seed money for a Mini-Marshall Plan, to rally Europe for a counterpart.

A year after, Senators Richard Lugar and Allan Cranston, and Congressmen Stephen Solarz and Jack Kemp finally supported the idea and wrote President Reagan about the creation of a “Multilateral Assistance Initiative” (MAI) that would involve not just the US, but also its European allies and Japan to pump billions into the Philippine economy priming our financial recovery onto political stability.

All told, from 1987 to 1993, MAI achieved a total of $14.4 billion in pledges (equivalent of $43 billion today). But as of end of 1989, out of the $4 billion that was partially available mostly in loans and grants, only $1.8 billion or 45% was absorbed by the Philippines due to administrative issues.

Actual utilization rates up to 1993 were even slower. While the pledges were high, bureaucratic, logistical, and planning constraints resulted in a slow disbursement of funds; not all of the $14.4 billion pledged by potential donor countries and multilateral institutions, were immediately converted into active projects or received by the Philippines within that specific timeframe.

A significant portion spilled over to about the middle of the term of President Fidel Ramos, until it was hit by the regional currency crisis of 1996.

Absorptive capacity

This was my education on absorptive capacity – a developing country’s ability to effectively identify, assimilate, adapt and utilize external resources, knowledge, aid, or foreign direct investments (FDI) to achieve productive economic growth, turning in flows into tangible development rather than letting them lead to inefficiency or waste.

Obviously, Bilyonaryo.com caught the blind side of former Ambassador Cuisia framing him to validate a July 2025 report by the Sydney-based Lowy Institute, “China pledged up to $24 billion in investments and loans during Duterte’s 2016 visit to Beijing, but the Philippines received far less than promised. I don’t think we’ve gotten even 20 percent of that.”

In foreign relations, we cannot discuss pledges of another country in a vacuum. Actual delivery on pledges is always dependent on the prevailing variables. Just like what struck the MAI, low uptake involving institutional readiness, project pipeline, and technical skills have to be factored in.

To start with, a fair analysis from Cuisia cannot overlook an obvious fact that President Rodrigo Duterte’s normative administration period only lasted for 3 years, as he experienced two force majeures, between the resumption of his term from July 2016 to its end in June 2022 – first was “war” in the 2017 Siege of Marawi, and second starting in 2020, the Covid 19 pandemic.

Next, when President Xi Jinping pledged $24 billion to the Philippines, China did not intend this to be an open-dated check that we can withdraw at any time, spend the way we want whenever we please. This was not an over -the-counter bank transaction Cuisia would be familiar to. $9 billion was for economic assistance and $15 billion in investments, inclusive of infrastructures, subject to time, motion and existing conditions on the ground.

Cuisia mentioned “two grant-funded bridges, including the Estrella–Pantaleon Bridge linking Makati and Mandaluyong and a bridge in Binondo, Manila”, but he omitted a third donated bridge called “Bucana” which is part of the larger Davao Coastal Road which is also funded by China.

He also failed to include a China-funded 1,580 meter cable Camalaniugan Bridge that connects with Aparri across the Cagayan River, whose works began in 2020 but was completed in January 2026.

The former ambassador missed out on another bridge in Davao connecting the city to Samal Island, whose formal project preparation, involving feasibility studies, site selection, and public consultations began in May 2018, leading to a China loan approval; and signing of the construction contract in January 2021.

Cuisia did not say that China was the first to donate Covid 19 vaccines that enabled us to launch our vaccination program on time, and contributing further to supply 40% of vaccines that the Philippines used during the most critical phase of the pandemic.

There was also no reference to the Laiban Dam project integrating into the New Centennial Water Source Project that received initial funding approval from China in 2007 under President Gloria Arroyo but faced delays, with renewed Chinese loan agreements later signed under Duterte.

China also approved official development assistance (ODA) for three major railway projects but its timetable met challenges because of the pandemic. Thereupon, they spilled over to the Marcos administration.

The contract for the construction of the P51 billion Subic-Clark Railway Project, was awarded to China Harbour Engineering Co. in December 2020.

The contract for the P142 billion Philippine National Railways South Long-Haul Project, also called the “Bicol Express”, was awarded to the joint venture of China Railway Group Ltd., China Railway No. 3 Engineering Group Co. Ltd., and China Railway Engineering Consulting Group Co. Ltd. last January 2022.

The National Economic Development Authority approved the P83 billion Tagum-Davao-Digos segment of the Mindanao Rail Project and a Chinese consortium won the management consultancy contract in 2021 but the Department of Finance indicated in 2023 that it was “no longer inclined” to pursue Chinese ODA and moved it instead to a Public-Private Partnership mode.

But according to Transportation Undersecretary for Railways Cesar Chavez, President Bongbong” Marcos Jr., stepped on the brakes and ordered the Department of Transportation (DOTr) to renegotiate the loan agreements for three railway projects. This would have been a total of P276 billion or US$5.16 billion, which Cuisia did not consider.

And what about the joint oil and gas exploration that China is giving 60% of the proceeds to after a full-scale project involving seabed surveys, exploratory drilling, and the construction of deep-water production facilities that can reach an estimate of $4 billion when completed for extraction? This was unilaterally abandoned by the Philippine-side.

The Philippines also canceled a $10.2 billion winning bid of MacroAsia and its partner China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) after Chinese state banks agreed to finance 98% of the Sangley Point International Airport (SPIA) symbolic of the Philippines’ participation in the Belt and Road Initiative.

Lowly Institute discredits China even for deals the Philippines botched, and Cuisia bought its yarn hook, line and sinker.

According to the Manila Times, based on compiled data from the Philippine Statistics Authority, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the National Economic Development Authority, Duterte’s rapprochement with China lead to a 382% increase in approved foreign investments from the time of former President Aquino III topped at $164.64 billion in investments against $43 billion.

In 2019 alone, the Philippines received $89.64 billion worth of investments from China, more than double the combined amount received during the 5 years of the Aquino Government.

This was the same year that posted the 4-millionth arriving tourist from China: 1 million in 2017, 1.3 million in 2018 and 1.7 million in 2019, creating 8 million jobs and generating a foreign currency inflow anywhere from $5 to $6 billion contribution to our gross domestic product.

In contrast, there were only 313,000 (2023), 312,000 (2024) and 262,000 in 2025.

Philippine exports to China totaled $58.72 billion averaging $9.8 per year from $8.02 in 2017 to $10.97 in 2022. This has plateaued annually below Duterte’s average registering only $9.42 in 2024 and even decreasing further in 2025 due to escalations in the South China Sea.

Tall stories about US performance

What I found to be malicious and intellectually dishonest is Cuisia’s attempt to tell tall stories of how better things are under the present dispensation than with his predecessor.

“By contrast”, the former Philippine ambassador to the US said “the Marcos administration’s renewed alignment with the United States has translated into concrete economic investments and expanded security cooperation for the country.”

“I think we’re seeing a lot more American investments, definitely,” he said, citing the energy, healthcare and infrastructure sectors.

The total picture on the left including American approved investments on the right, that show a steady decline since 2021, making remarkable crash last August 2025.

He added that “the Philippines has expanded the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) by increasing the number of agreed sites from five to nine, and received more U.S. military assistance under Marcos than during the Duterte administration, including support for the modernization of the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the development of EDCA facilities.”

On the contrary, Marcos has not landed a single modernization equipment since he took over. The deliveries that have been occurring have been for orders from Poland that were made during Duterte’s last year in office, including 32 Blackhawk helicopters.

Worse, Marcos did not stop the cancellation of 17 Russian-made Mi-17s heavy-lift helicopters because he wanted to please the US by replacing them with US Chinooks, but was locked out of supply for surplus models, and is now left with a budget that could afford only one unit.

The US offered a grant of $100 million to make it two brand-new ones, but the Americans instead used the money to improve their EDCA sites.

Duterte sourced assets from many countries including Turkey, Israel, China, Japan and Indonesia, diversifying its military procurement, actively seeking equipment from non-traditional partners while maintaining some ties with traditional allies. This shift was largely driven by a desire for cheaper, “no-strings-attached” equipment, particularly for anti-terrorism and internal security operations.

Cuisia gives the impression that they are not good enough if they do not come from the United States. Cuisia cannot quantify this because the reverse is true.

However, not a cent of the $500 million pledged by President Joe Biden to Marcos has been released, and now Pete Hegseth, US defense secretary, has added $1 billion more for a total of $1.5 billion in pledges, of which $400 million has already overdue since 2003 at a rate of $100 million a year.

Conclusion

In my book, the Poverty of Power, I said Marcos could usher in the rise of the Philippine phoenix. Now in hindsight, he could have very well exceeded Duterte’s record if he did not allow himself to be distracted by American zero-sum post-war mentality causing him to embargo Xi Jinping’s offer of $23 billion for his flagship programs, on top of China’s money commitments that were already in the pipeline.

Marcos has no one to blame but his lack of gravitas and on top of that, moral depravity.

Now that the Philippine peso has almost breached  the Php60 exchange mark to the US dollar and his net trust rating has sunk from SWS’ negative three, to Pulse Asia’s negative 15 to Publicus negative 27, an awakened population is ousting a fallen leader who has overdelivered only on promises that he cannot fulfill, with an ally that is only good on paper.

Next: Philippine Prognosis on Roots, Rise, Revival of Japanese Militarism

   

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