By Herman Tiu Laurel

 

The amazing durability of China’s growth and expanding contribution to global economic progress finds surprising sustainability from year-to-year, 5-years plan to 5-years plan, decade to decade for almost three-quarters of a century now, repeatedly overcoming the now monotonous chants of naysayers of the “China collapse” theory with regularity.

Today China contributes 30% of world’s GDP, is the top trading partner of over 120 countries, leads the world in 37 out of 44 critical technologies (according to a 2023 Australian Strategic Policy Institute [ASPI]) 5G internet, electric batteries, hypersonic missiles, drones, machine learning, nuclear energy, photovoltaics, quantum sensors, critical minerals extraction, quantum computing, high-speed rail, solar energy, AI, e-commerce, de-dollarization financial technologies and a host of others.

                What is the secret, if any, of China’s success in its economic planning and implementation process that accounts for these continuing achievements that has put it on top of the world’s economic  pyramid as the largest economy in PPP terms in such a short period of time and reach the apex of technological prowess within three generations?

The 2024 Central Economic Work Committee: proactive macro policies.

The highlights from the 2024 Central Economic Work Committee meeting can be summarized into the “proactive fiscal  policy ” through “a higher deficit-to-GDP ratio,” “increased issuance of  ultra-long special treasury bonds and local government special-purpose bonds,” achieving “moderately loosening of monetary policy” that will push popular consumption and high-quality entrepreneurial investments.

The other major part of the plan continues to be in the realm of “opening up” China’s growing market of 400-million middle-class consumers to the world, while opening up many sectors to foreign investors including manufacturing of medical equipment, health care services, IT and software services, real estate, information transmission, wholesale and retail, some sector of finance and even the energy sector.

All are in line with a continuing general trajectory of reform and opening up set decades ago in gradual expanding stages adapted to emerging developments, changes and challenges that arise in the course of time the latest of which is the “trade war stage” that emerged vigorously since 2017 under the first Trump government in the U.S. that continues and threatens to intensify and exacerbate in the years to come.

China’s economic progression since 1949.

The younger generations of the world, especially the of the Global South, must be made aware how China started it all with setting the base for agricultural productivity and the basics of industrialization, and learning from errors and successes, China moved on from one stage of economic development to the next higher stage consistently for over seven decades.

China first set the base for industrialization, then Deng Xiao Ping’s modernization, reform and opening up. The key to the continuing evolution of China’s success has been the ideological dedication to the welfare of the nation which kept its economic practice attuned to the best interest of the people, socialist principles and governance and wholistic democracy steering the country in an agile path.

In 2008 in the midst of global financial downturn precipitated by the U.S.-Western financial collapse China instituted massive pump priming, launching extensive infrastructure expansion, becoming the world’s largest economy by PPP standards. Preparing for future growth China in 2013 launched the Belt and Road Initiative now empowering the Global South economies partake of China’s growth.

Dual Circulation strategy.

Following the U.S. initiation of “trade war” against China the Chinese leadership forged the “Dual Circulation Strategy” in 2020 aiming to drive up domestic consumption, investment in high quality enterprises, new technologies, while simultaneously expanding foreign markets, all of which has is now sustaining China’s economic growth and well into the future.

China is achieving its annual growth target steadily in the first three quarters of 2024, with GDP up 5.3 percent, 4.7 percent and 4.6 percent year on year. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy has reported expansion for nine consecutive quarters. The stable performance proves that China has managed to navigate global economic headwinds and pressures from domestic structural problems.

The 2024 Central Economic Work Committee plans are reinforcements of the accrued enlightened and effective economic directions from the past to the present, going on into the future. Developing countries such as the Philippines must learn from China’s history of economic success, establish stable governments and practice people centered” economic assessment, planning and implementation.

The crucial difference from the U.S. pump priming of its economy in 2008 to save itself from the U.S. financial crisis using “money printing presses” China’s “moderate loosening” of monetary policy does not turn to printing money but to non-inflationary means of reducing bank reserves requirements, issuing long term bonds, restructuring real estate development financing, rental and purchasing rates.

China advocates dialogue vs. confrontation.

China’s strong growth, consolidation and inexorable  peaceful rise in the past decades has triggered varying degrees, from moderate to very intense, reactions from the Western economies particularly the United States of America which has been taking aggressive, provocative postures against China and the partners seeking to ride China’s growth into the future.

From “trade war” to “proxy geopolitical wars” the U.S. in particular have been taunting China with, the hostility encompasses the China-led projects for the multipolar world such as the BRICS Plus, Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure projects, in many countries of the Global South, and the peace initiatives of China in many flashpoints of the world.

Despite the constant hostility shown by Western countries, particularly the U.S., President Xi Jinping speaking from a transcendent position seeks dialogue and cooperation over confrontation with the antagonists, all for the interest and welfare of a better world of peace, harmony and common prosperity. Eventually, even the West must join the Global Majority and China in building the “Community of Shared Future for Mankind.”

The Philippines in the “Community of Shared Future for Mankind.”

The Global Majority, including ASEAN, are all on board the great project for the Community of Shared Future for Mankind, made not only possible but real, by China’s continuing initiative and great effort at reforming and opening up its burgeoning economy and market, its historic technological innovations opening the future to new production and markets assuring continuing global growth.

ASEAN, in particular, is riding high the crest of China’s economic and technological growth and progress, expanding its share of the robust Chinese market, tapping the great infrastructure largesse of the Belt and Road Initiative with bountiful railway projects, benefitting from offshoring of enterprises and establishment of joint ventures.

Despite the current estrangement of the Philippines’ political dispensation from China’s hand of friendship and brotherhood due to external pressures on the current government and misguided domestic political trends, causing the deferment of major Belt and Road Initiative projects and setbacks in economic vital for the Philippines. But China, as expressed by its Ambassador Huang Xilian, continues to extend its hand to “meet halfway” on any misunderstanding.

The Philippines’ seat at the table of the “Community of Shared Future for Mankind” will always be ready and waiting.

People-to-People, Business-to-Business ties continue.

On the Facebook, the page of “Filipino Teachers in China” one will see photos and read narratives of Filipino communities such as the one in Tianjin, China, enjoying their “Aesthetic Themed Christmas Party 2024,” and a Filipina teacher showing a video of her students in kinder class, or Philippines’ consul in Chongqing Frank Olea narrating the “Xavier School Visits Chongqing: a sharing of insights and an exchange with Bashu Secondary School” among many others.

Philippine Embassy FB page with Amb. Jaime Flor Cruz announcing that the Philippines secured US$ 1.6-Billion worth of export sales from the China International Import Expo 2024, capping its 7^th straight year of participating in the Shanghai based trade exposition, and in the same event seeing new prospects for Filipino Medium, Small and Micro Enterprises gaining entry into the Chinese market while in another event the ambassador open and exhibit inviting Mongolians to visit the Philippines.

While the past two-years has been a rough sea ride for Philippines-China government-to-government or Track-One relations, the three other tracks (Non-governmental conflict resolution, business and commerce promoting peace, and people-to-people) are still open and thriving. They keep open the doors for the Philippines rejoining the promise of forever peace and prosperity of China’s deepening reform and opening up of its economy. ###

   

Email: contact@asiancenturyph.com

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/asiancenturyph/

Twitter: https://twitter.com/AsianCenturyPH

Substack:

Also read: