菲律宾电力发展研究报告

Research on Electric Power Development in the Philippines

摘要

Abstract

菲律宾共和国拥有1.05亿人口，是东南亚第二大人口大国。菲律宾是东南亚国家联盟（简称“东盟”）主要成员国，也是亚洲太平洋经济合作组织（APEC）成员国之一。2018年，中菲两国建立全面战略合作关系。2018年，中菲两国建立全面战略合作关系。近年来，中菲两国贸易保持了持续快速增长势头。2020年中菲双边货物贸易额达到613亿美元，中国已成为菲律宾第一大贸易伙伴。

With a population of 105 million, the Republic of the Philippines is the second most populous country in Southeast Asia. The Philippines is a major member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and one of the members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). In 2018, China and the Philippines established a comprehensive strategic cooperative relationship. In recent years, the trade between China and the Philippines has maintained a sustained and rapid growth momentum. In 2020, the bilateral trade in goods between China and the Philippines reached 61.3 billion US Dollars, and China has become the Philippines’ largest trading partner.

2015年到2019年，菲律宾经济增长均达到6%以上，横向比较亚洲主要经济体，仅低于印度、中国和越南，经济建设成果显著。2020年受新冠疫情影响，经济发展有所回落，但现已逐渐恢复。经济的快速发展带来了巨大的电力需求，现有电力机制下高昂的电价，也进一步刺激了电力行业的投资和发展。但另一方面，基础设施建设薄弱、对外资的过度限制以及就业不足等都在较大程度上制约了菲律宾的电力发展，进而制约了经济增长。

From 2015 to 2019, the economic growth of the Philippines has reached more than 6%. Compared with the major Asian economies, it is only lower than India, China and Vietnam. The economic development has achieved remarkable results. Affected by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, economic development has declined, but it has gradually recovered. The rapid economic development has brought huge demand for electricity, and the high electricity price under the existing electricity mechanism has further stimulated the investment and development of the electricity industry. On the other hand, weak infrastructure, excessive restrictions on foreign investment, and lack of employment have restricted the development of electricity in the Philippines to a large extent, thereby restricting economic growth.

根据菲律宾能源部2020-2040能源规划，到2040年菲律宾将需要新增装机容量约为68.63GW，年均增速需在6.68%左右。截止2020年底，菲律宾全国发电装机容量仅为26.286GW。由此可见，菲律宾电力市场需求是旺盛的，发展潜力是较大的。结合菲律宾能源供给情况分析，未来十年，燃煤发电厂仍然将作为供电基础负荷，同时逐步开发LNG等清洁可靠能源发电，配合开发新能源项目作为调峰负荷。

According to the 2020-2040 energy plan of the Philippine Department of Energy, the Philippines will need about 68.63GW of new installed capacity by 2040, with an average annual growth rate of about 6.68%. By the end of 2020, the installed capacity in the Philippines was only 26.286GW. It can be seen that the power market demand in the Philippines is strong and the development potential is great. Combined with the analysis of the energy supply situation in the Philippines, in the next ten years, coal-fired power plants will still serve as the basic load for power supply, while gradually developing LNG and other clean and reliable energy power generation, and cooperating with the development of renewable energy projects as peak load.

2001年，菲律宾政府颁布《电力产业改革法案》（EPIRA），该法案将电力行业划分为发电、输电、配电和供电四个领域，其中在发电和供电领域全面开放并力求实现完全竞争，在输电和配电领域实施有管制的竞争。该法案目的就是将电力彻底市场化，国家将不再直接出资建设电站，存量国有发电资产还要陆续出售，未来的新增发电能力几乎全部由私人投资者负责建设，政府的职能集中在提供法律、政策和监管环境。此外，发电行业对外国投资者的进入也没有过多限制。电网虽然属于“自然垄断”，但仍通过特许经营权拍卖的方式安排类似于私有化的激励机制。

In 2001, the Philippine government promulgated the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA), which divided the power industry into four sectors: power generation, power transmission, power distribution and power supply. Among them, fully open and strive to achieve complete competition in the field of power generation and power supply, and implement regulated competition in the field of power transmission and distribution. The purpose of the Act is to completely market the power industry. The state will no longer directly invest in the construction of power stations, and the existing state-owned power generation assets will be sold one after another. Almost all new power generation capacity in the future will be built by private investors. The function of the government is to provide legal services. , policy and regulatory environment. In addition, the power generation industry does not have too many restrictions on the entry of foreign investors. Although the power grid is a “natural monopoly”, privatization-like incentives are still arranged through franchise auctions.

2007年，中国国家电网公司与菲律宾蒙特罗电网资源公司（MOGRC）、卡拉卡高电公司（CALACA）联合投标获得了菲律宾输电环节唯一的特许经营权，组建了菲律宾国家电网公司（NGCP），负责投资及运营菲律宾全国的输电资产。中国国家电网公司的加入，借助中国的技术优势，成功的降低了菲律宾的电网的线损，将其从16%降低到9%，还大大提高了电网的可靠性，改善了菲律宾经常停电的状况。与此同时，国家电网公司的投资也带动了中国设备制造商和工程承包商进入菲律宾市场。

In 2007, State Grid Corporation of China, Monte Oro Grid Resources Corporation (MOGRC) and Calaca High Power Corporation (CALACA) jointly bid to obtain the only franchise in the power transmission in the Philippines, and established the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP), which is responsible for the investment and operation of transmission assets across the Philippines. With the Participation of State Grid Corporation of China, with the help of China’s technological advantages, has successfully reduced the transmission loss of the Philippines’ power grid from 16 % to 9%. It has also greatly improved the reliability of the power grid and improved the situation of frequent power outages in the Philippines. At the same time, it has also driven chinese equipment manufacturers and engineering contractors to enter the Philippine market.

菲律宾经济增长迅速，电力需求旺盛，且电力基础设施建设亟待发展。但受外资投资限制的影响，外资投资电力需求不高，需要对项目进行具体的甄选。中资企业应结合各自的优势，寻找合适的设备制造商和本地施工合作伙伴进行合作开发。对最新的、前沿的技术和业务，应提前进行推介和布局，如综合能源、储能技术、智能电网等方面的业务。在商业模式和投融资方面，应积极探索与属地合作伙伴联合开发的机会，积极探索联合投资的模式。 The Philippine economy is growing rapidly, the demand for electricity is strong, and the construction of electricity infrastructure is in urgent need of development. However, due to the restrictions on foreign investment, the demand for foreign investment in electricity is not high, and specific projects need to be selected. Chinese-funded enterprises should combine their respective advantages to find suitable equipment manufacturers and local construction partners for cooperative development. The latest and cutting-edge technologies and businesses should be promoted and deployed in advance, such as businesses in integrated energy, energy storage technology, and smart grids. In terms of business models and investment and financing, opportunities for joint development with local partners should be actively explored, especially the mode of joint investment.