่ฒๅพๅฎพ็ตๅๅๅฑ็ ็ฉถๆฅๅ
Research on Electric Power Development in the Philippines
ๆ่ฆ
Abstract
่ฒๅพๅฎพๅ ฑๅๅฝๆฅๆ1.05ไบฟไบบๅฃ๏ผๆฏไธๅไบ็ฌฌไบๅคงไบบๅฃๅคงๅฝใ่ฒๅพๅฎพๆฏไธๅไบๅฝๅฎถ่็๏ผ็ฎ็งฐโไธ็โ๏ผไธป่ฆๆๅๅฝ๏ผไนๆฏไบๆดฒๅคชๅนณๆด็ปๆตๅไฝ็ป็ป๏ผAPEC๏ผๆๅๅฝไนไธใ2018ๅนด๏ผไธญ่ฒไธคๅฝๅปบ็ซๅ จ้ขๆ็ฅๅไฝๅ ณ็ณปใ2018ๅนด๏ผไธญ่ฒไธคๅฝๅปบ็ซๅ จ้ขๆ็ฅๅไฝๅ ณ็ณปใ่ฟๅนดๆฅ๏ผไธญ่ฒไธคๅฝ่ดธๆไฟๆไบๆ็ปญๅฟซ้ๅข้ฟๅฟๅคดใ2020ๅนดไธญ่ฒๅ่พน่ดง็ฉ่ดธๆ้ข่พพๅฐ613ไบฟ็พๅ ๏ผไธญๅฝๅทฒๆไธบ่ฒๅพๅฎพ็ฌฌไธๅคง่ดธๆไผไผดใ
With a population of 105 million, the Republic of the Philippines is the second most populous country in Southeast Asia. The Philippines is a major member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and one of the members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). In 2018, China and the Philippines established a comprehensive strategic cooperative relationship. In recent years, the trade between China and the Philippines has maintained a sustained and rapid growth momentum. In 2020, the bilateral trade in goods between China and the Philippines reached 61.3 billion US Dollars, and China has become the Philippines’ largest trading partner.
2015ๅนดๅฐ2019ๅนด๏ผ่ฒๅพๅฎพ็ปๆตๅข้ฟๅ่พพๅฐ6%ไปฅไธ๏ผๆจชๅๆฏ่พไบๆดฒไธป่ฆ็ปๆตไฝ๏ผไป ไฝไบๅฐๅบฆใไธญๅฝๅ่ถๅ๏ผ็ปๆตๅปบ่ฎพๆๆๆพ่ใ2020ๅนดๅๆฐๅ ็ซๆ ๅฝฑๅ๏ผ็ปๆตๅๅฑๆๆๅ่ฝ๏ผไฝ็ฐๅทฒ้ๆธๆขๅคใ็ปๆต็ๅฟซ้ๅๅฑๅธฆๆฅไบๅทจๅคง็็ตๅ้ๆฑ๏ผ็ฐๆ็ตๅๆบๅถไธ้ซๆ็็ตไปท๏ผไน่ฟไธๆญฅๅบๆฟไบ็ตๅ่กไธ็ๆ่ตๅๅๅฑใไฝๅฆไธๆน้ข๏ผๅบ็ก่ฎพๆฝๅปบ่ฎพ่ๅผฑใๅฏนๅค่ต็่ฟๅบฆ้ๅถไปฅๅๅฐฑไธไธ่ถณ็ญ้ฝๅจ่พๅคง็จๅบฆไธๅถ็บฆไบ่ฒๅพๅฎพ็็ตๅๅๅฑ๏ผ่ฟ่ๅถ็บฆไบ็ปๆตๅข้ฟใ
From 2015 to 2019, the economic growth of the Philippines has reached more than 6%. Compared with the major Asian economies, it is only lower than India, China and Vietnam. The economic development has achieved remarkable results. Affected by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, economic development has declined, but it has gradually recovered. The rapid economic development has brought huge demand for electricity, and the high electricity price under the existing electricity mechanism has further stimulated the investment and development of the electricity industry. On the other hand, weak infrastructure, excessive restrictions on foreign investment, and lack of employment have restricted the development of electricity in the Philippines to a large extent, thereby restricting economic growth.
ๆ นๆฎ่ฒๅพๅฎพ่ฝๆบ้จ2020-2040่ฝๆบ่งๅ๏ผๅฐ2040ๅนด่ฒๅพๅฎพๅฐ้่ฆๆฐๅข่ฃ ๆบๅฎน้็บฆไธบ68.63GW๏ผๅนดๅๅข้้ๅจ6.68%ๅทฆๅณใๆชๆญข2020ๅนดๅบ๏ผ่ฒๅพๅฎพๅ จๅฝๅ็ต่ฃ ๆบๅฎน้ไป ไธบ26.286GWใ็ฑๆญคๅฏ่ง๏ผ่ฒๅพๅฎพ็ตๅๅธๅบ้ๆฑๆฏๆบ็็๏ผๅๅฑๆฝๅๆฏ่พๅคง็ใ็ปๅ่ฒๅพๅฎพ่ฝๆบไพ็ปๆ ๅตๅๆ๏ผๆชๆฅๅๅนด๏ผ็็ คๅ็ตๅไป็ถๅฐไฝไธบไพ็ตๅบ็ก่ด่ท๏ผๅๆถ้ๆญฅๅผๅLNG็ญๆธ ๆดๅฏ้ ่ฝๆบๅ็ต๏ผ้ ๅๅผๅๆฐ่ฝๆบ้กน็ฎไฝไธบ่ฐๅณฐ่ด่ทใ
According to the 2020-2040 energy plan of the Philippine Department of Energy, the Philippines will need about 68.63GW of new installed capacity by 2040, with an average annual growth rate of about 6.68%. By the end of 2020, the installed capacity in the Philippines was only 26.286GW. It can be seen that the power market demand in the Philippines is strong and the development potential is great. Combined with the analysis of the energy supply situation in the Philippines, in the next ten years, coal-fired power plants will still serve as the basic load for power supply, while gradually developing LNG and other clean and reliable energy power generation, and cooperating with the development of renewable energy projects as peak load.
2001ๅนด๏ผ่ฒๅพๅฎพๆฟๅบ้ขๅธใ็ตๅไบงไธๆน้ฉๆณๆกใ๏ผEPIRA๏ผ๏ผ่ฏฅๆณๆกๅฐ็ตๅ่กไธๅๅไธบๅ็ตใ่พ็ตใ้ ็ตๅไพ็ตๅไธช้ขๅ๏ผๅ ถไธญๅจๅ็ตๅไพ็ต้ขๅๅ จ้ขๅผๆพๅนถๅๆฑๅฎ็ฐๅฎๅ จ็ซไบ๏ผๅจ่พ็ตๅ้ ็ต้ขๅๅฎๆฝๆ็ฎกๅถ็็ซไบใ่ฏฅๆณๆก็ฎ็ๅฐฑๆฏๅฐ็ตๅๅฝปๅบๅธๅบๅ๏ผๅฝๅฎถๅฐไธๅ็ดๆฅๅบ่ตๅปบ่ฎพ็ต็ซ๏ผๅญ้ๅฝๆๅ็ต่ตไบง่ฟ่ฆ้็ปญๅบๅฎ๏ผๆชๆฅ็ๆฐๅขๅ็ต่ฝๅๅ ไนๅ จ้จ็ฑ็งไบบๆ่ต่ ่ด่ดฃๅปบ่ฎพ๏ผๆฟๅบ็่่ฝ้ไธญๅจๆไพๆณๅพใๆฟ็ญๅ็็ฎก็ฏๅขใๆญคๅค๏ผๅ็ต่กไธๅฏนๅคๅฝๆ่ต่ ็่ฟๅ ฅไนๆฒกๆ่ฟๅค้ๅถใ็ต็ฝ่ฝ็ถๅฑไบโ่ช็ถๅๆญโ๏ผไฝไป้่ฟ็น่ฎธ็ป่ฅๆๆๅ็ๆนๅผๅฎๆ็ฑปไผผไบ็งๆๅ็ๆฟๅฑๆบๅถใ
In 2001, the Philippine government promulgated the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA), which divided the power industry into four sectors: power generation, power transmission, power distribution and power supply. Among them, fully open and strive to achieve complete competition in the field of power generation and power supply, and implement regulated competition in the field of power transmission and distribution. The purpose of the Act is to completely market the power industry. The state will no longer directly invest in the construction of power stations, and the existing state-owned power generation assets will be sold one after another. Almost all new power generation capacity in the future will be built by private investors. The function of the government is to provide legal services. , policy and regulatory environment. In addition, the power generation industry does not have too many restrictions on the entry of foreign investors. Although the power grid is a “natural monopoly”, privatization-like incentives are still arranged through franchise auctions.
2007ๅนด๏ผไธญๅฝๅฝๅฎถ็ต็ฝๅ ฌๅธไธ่ฒๅพๅฎพ่็น็ฝ็ต็ฝ่ตๆบๅ ฌๅธ๏ผMOGRC๏ผใๅกๆๅก้ซ็ตๅ ฌๅธ๏ผCALACA๏ผ่ๅๆๆ ่ทๅพไบ่ฒๅพๅฎพ่พ็ต็ฏ่ๅฏไธ็็น่ฎธ็ป่ฅๆ๏ผ็ปๅปบไบ่ฒๅพๅฎพๅฝๅฎถ็ต็ฝๅ ฌๅธ๏ผNGCP๏ผ๏ผ่ด่ดฃๆ่ตๅ่ฟ่ฅ่ฒๅพๅฎพๅ จๅฝ็่พ็ต่ตไบงใไธญๅฝๅฝๅฎถ็ต็ฝๅ ฌๅธ็ๅ ๅ ฅ๏ผๅๅฉไธญๅฝ็ๆๆฏไผๅฟ๏ผๆๅ็้ไฝไบ่ฒๅพๅฎพ็็ต็ฝ็็บฟๆ๏ผๅฐๅ ถไป16%้ไฝๅฐ9%๏ผ่ฟๅคงๅคงๆ้ซไบ็ต็ฝ็ๅฏ้ ๆง๏ผๆนๅไบ่ฒๅพๅฎพ็ปๅธธๅ็ต็็ถๅตใไธๆญคๅๆถ๏ผๅฝๅฎถ็ต็ฝๅ ฌๅธ็ๆ่ตไนๅธฆๅจไบไธญๅฝ่ฎพๅคๅถ้ ๅๅๅทฅ็จๆฟๅ ๅ่ฟๅ ฅ่ฒๅพๅฎพๅธๅบใ
In 2007, State Grid Corporation of China, Monte Oro Grid Resources Corporation (MOGRC) and Calaca High Power Corporation (CALACA) jointly bid to obtain the only franchise in the power transmission in the Philippines, and established the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP), which is responsible for the investment and operation of transmission assets across the Philippines. With the Participation of State Grid Corporation of China, with the help of China’s technological advantages, has successfully reduced the transmission loss of the Philippines’ power grid from 16 % to 9%. It has also greatly improved the reliability of the power grid and improved the situation of frequent power outages in the Philippines. At the same time, it has also driven chinese equipment manufacturers and engineering contractors to enter the Philippine market.
่ฒๅพๅฎพ็ปๆตๅข้ฟ่ฟ ้๏ผ็ตๅ้ๆฑๆบ็๏ผไธ็ตๅๅบ็ก่ฎพๆฝๅปบ่ฎพไบๅพ ๅๅฑใไฝๅๅค่ตๆ่ต้ๅถ็ๅฝฑๅ๏ผๅค่ตๆ่ต็ตๅ้ๆฑไธ้ซ๏ผ้่ฆๅฏน้กน็ฎ่ฟ่กๅ ทไฝ็็้ใไธญ่ตไผไธๅบ็ปๅๅ่ช็ไผๅฟ๏ผๅฏปๆพๅ้็่ฎพๅคๅถ้ ๅๅๆฌๅฐๆฝๅทฅๅไฝไผไผด่ฟ่กๅไฝๅผๅใๅฏนๆๆฐ็ใๅๆฒฟ็ๆๆฏๅไธๅก๏ผๅบๆๅ่ฟ่กๆจไปๅๅธๅฑ๏ผๅฆ็ปผๅ่ฝๆบใๅจ่ฝๆๆฏใๆบ่ฝ็ต็ฝ็ญๆน้ข็ไธๅกใๅจๅไธๆจกๅผๅๆ่่ตๆน้ข๏ผๅบ็งฏๆๆข็ดขไธๅฑๅฐๅไฝไผไผด่ๅๅผๅ็ๆบไผ๏ผ็งฏๆๆข็ดข่ๅๆ่ต็ๆจกๅผใ The Philippine economy is growing rapidly, the demand for electricity is strong, and the construction of electricity infrastructure is in urgent need of development. However, due to the restrictions on foreign investment, the demand for foreign investment in electricity is not high, and specific projects need to be selected. Chinese-funded enterprises should combine their respective advantages to find suitable equipment manufacturers and local construction partners for cooperative development. The latest and cutting-edge technologies and businesses should be promoted and deployed in advance, such as businesses in integrated energy, energy storage technology, and smart grids. In terms of business models and investment and financing, opportunities for joint development with local partners should be actively explored, especially the mode of joint investment.
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