Research on Electric Power Development in the Philippines

่ฒๅพ‹ๅฎพ็”ตๅŠ›ๅ‘ๅฑ•็ ”็ฉถๆŠฅๅ‘Š

Research on Electric Power Development in the Philippines

ๆ‘˜่ฆ

Abstract

่ฒๅพ‹ๅฎพๅ…ฑๅ’Œๅ›ฝๆ‹ฅๆœ‰1.05ไบฟไบบๅฃ๏ผŒๆ˜ฏไธœๅ—ไบš็ฌฌไบŒๅคงไบบๅฃๅคงๅ›ฝใ€‚่ฒๅพ‹ๅฎพๆ˜ฏไธœๅ—ไบšๅ›ฝๅฎถ่”็›Ÿ๏ผˆ็ฎ€็งฐโ€œไธœ็›Ÿโ€๏ผ‰ไธป่ฆๆˆๅ‘˜ๅ›ฝ๏ผŒไนŸๆ˜ฏไบšๆดฒๅคชๅนณๆด‹็ปๆตŽๅˆไฝœ็ป„็ป‡๏ผˆAPEC๏ผ‰ๆˆๅ‘˜ๅ›ฝไน‹ไธ€ใ€‚2018ๅนด๏ผŒไธญ่ฒไธคๅ›ฝๅปบ็ซ‹ๅ…จ้ขๆˆ˜็•ฅๅˆไฝœๅ…ณ็ณปใ€‚2018ๅนด๏ผŒไธญ่ฒไธคๅ›ฝๅปบ็ซ‹ๅ…จ้ขๆˆ˜็•ฅๅˆไฝœๅ…ณ็ณปใ€‚่ฟ‘ๅนดๆฅ๏ผŒไธญ่ฒไธคๅ›ฝ่ดธๆ˜“ไฟๆŒไบ†ๆŒ็ปญๅฟซ้€Ÿๅขž้•ฟๅŠฟๅคดใ€‚2020ๅนดไธญ่ฒๅŒ่พน่ดง็‰ฉ่ดธๆ˜“้ข่พพๅˆฐ613ไบฟ็พŽๅ…ƒ๏ผŒไธญๅ›ฝๅทฒๆˆไธบ่ฒๅพ‹ๅฎพ็ฌฌไธ€ๅคง่ดธๆ˜“ไผ™ไผดใ€‚

With a population of 105 million, the Republic of the Philippines is the second most populous country in Southeast Asia. The Philippines is a major member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and one of the members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). In 2018, China and the Philippines established a comprehensive strategic cooperative relationship. In recent years, the trade between China and the Philippines has maintained a sustained and rapid growth momentum. In 2020, the bilateral trade in goods between China and the Philippines reached 61.3 billion US Dollars, and China has become the Philippines’ largest trading partner.

2015ๅนดๅˆฐ2019ๅนด๏ผŒ่ฒๅพ‹ๅฎพ็ปๆตŽๅขž้•ฟๅ‡่พพๅˆฐ6%ไปฅไธŠ๏ผŒๆจชๅ‘ๆฏ”่พƒไบšๆดฒไธป่ฆ็ปๆตŽไฝ“๏ผŒไป…ไฝŽไบŽๅฐๅบฆใ€ไธญๅ›ฝๅ’Œ่ถŠๅ—๏ผŒ็ปๆตŽๅปบ่ฎพๆˆๆžœๆ˜พ่‘—ใ€‚2020ๅนดๅ—ๆ–ฐๅ† ็–ซๆƒ…ๅฝฑๅ“๏ผŒ็ปๆตŽๅ‘ๅฑ•ๆœ‰ๆ‰€ๅ›ž่ฝ๏ผŒไฝ†็Žฐๅทฒ้€ๆธๆขๅคใ€‚็ปๆตŽ็š„ๅฟซ้€Ÿๅ‘ๅฑ•ๅธฆๆฅไบ†ๅทจๅคง็š„็”ตๅŠ›้œ€ๆฑ‚๏ผŒ็Žฐๆœ‰็”ตๅŠ›ๆœบๅˆถไธ‹้ซ˜ๆ˜‚็š„็”ตไปท๏ผŒไนŸ่ฟ›ไธ€ๆญฅๅˆบๆฟ€ไบ†็”ตๅŠ›่กŒไธš็š„ๆŠ•่ต„ๅ’Œๅ‘ๅฑ•ใ€‚ไฝ†ๅฆไธ€ๆ–น้ข๏ผŒๅŸบ็ก€่ฎพๆ–ฝๅปบ่ฎพ่–„ๅผฑใ€ๅฏนๅค–่ต„็š„่ฟ‡ๅบฆ้™ๅˆถไปฅๅŠๅฐฑไธšไธ่ถณ็ญ‰้ƒฝๅœจ่พƒๅคง็จ‹ๅบฆไธŠๅˆถ็บฆไบ†่ฒๅพ‹ๅฎพ็š„็”ตๅŠ›ๅ‘ๅฑ•๏ผŒ่ฟ›่€Œๅˆถ็บฆไบ†็ปๆตŽๅขž้•ฟใ€‚

From 2015 to 2019, the economic growth of the Philippines has reached more than 6%. Compared with the major Asian economies, it is only lower than India, China and Vietnam. The economic development has achieved remarkable results. Affected by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, economic development has declined, but it has gradually recovered. The rapid economic development has brought huge demand for electricity, and the high electricity price under the existing electricity mechanism has further stimulated the investment and development of the electricity industry. On the other hand, weak infrastructure, excessive restrictions on foreign investment, and lack of employment have restricted the development of electricity in the Philippines to a large extent, thereby restricting economic growth.

ๆ นๆฎ่ฒๅพ‹ๅฎพ่ƒฝๆบ้ƒจ2020-2040่ƒฝๆบ่ง„ๅˆ’๏ผŒๅˆฐ2040ๅนด่ฒๅพ‹ๅฎพๅฐ†้œ€่ฆๆ–ฐๅขž่ฃ…ๆœบๅฎน้‡็บฆไธบ68.63GW๏ผŒๅนดๅ‡ๅขž้€Ÿ้œ€ๅœจ6.68%ๅทฆๅณใ€‚ๆˆชๆญข2020ๅนดๅบ•๏ผŒ่ฒๅพ‹ๅฎพๅ…จๅ›ฝๅ‘็”ต่ฃ…ๆœบๅฎน้‡ไป…ไธบ26.286GWใ€‚็”ฑๆญคๅฏ่ง๏ผŒ่ฒๅพ‹ๅฎพ็”ตๅŠ›ๅธ‚ๅœบ้œ€ๆฑ‚ๆ˜ฏๆ—บ็››็š„๏ผŒๅ‘ๅฑ•ๆฝœๅŠ›ๆ˜ฏ่พƒๅคง็š„ใ€‚็ป“ๅˆ่ฒๅพ‹ๅฎพ่ƒฝๆบไพ›็ป™ๆƒ…ๅ†ตๅˆ†ๆž๏ผŒๆœชๆฅๅๅนด๏ผŒ็‡ƒ็…คๅ‘็”ตๅŽ‚ไป็„ถๅฐ†ไฝœไธบไพ›็”ตๅŸบ็ก€่ดŸ่ท๏ผŒๅŒๆ—ถ้€ๆญฅๅผ€ๅ‘LNG็ญ‰ๆธ…ๆดๅฏ้ ่ƒฝๆบๅ‘็”ต๏ผŒ้…ๅˆๅผ€ๅ‘ๆ–ฐ่ƒฝๆบ้กน็›ฎไฝœไธบ่ฐƒๅณฐ่ดŸ่ทใ€‚

According to the 2020-2040 energy plan of the Philippine Department of Energy, the Philippines will need about 68.63GW of new installed capacity by 2040, with an average annual growth rate of about 6.68%. By the end of 2020, the installed capacity in the Philippines was only 26.286GW. It can be seen that the power market demand in the Philippines is strong and the development potential is great. Combined with the analysis of the energy supply situation in the Philippines, in the next ten years, coal-fired power plants will still serve as the basic load for power supply, while gradually developing LNG and other clean and reliable energy power generation, and cooperating with the development of renewable energy projects as peak load.

2001ๅนด๏ผŒ่ฒๅพ‹ๅฎพๆ”ฟๅบœ้ขๅธƒใ€Š็”ตๅŠ›ไบงไธšๆ”น้ฉๆณ•ๆกˆใ€‹๏ผˆEPIRA๏ผ‰๏ผŒ่ฏฅๆณ•ๆกˆๅฐ†็”ตๅŠ›่กŒไธšๅˆ’ๅˆ†ไธบๅ‘็”ตใ€่พ“็”ตใ€้…็”ตๅ’Œไพ›็”ตๅ››ไธช้ข†ๅŸŸ๏ผŒๅ…ถไธญๅœจๅ‘็”ตๅ’Œไพ›็”ต้ข†ๅŸŸๅ…จ้ขๅผ€ๆ”พๅนถๅŠ›ๆฑ‚ๅฎž็ŽฐๅฎŒๅ…จ็ซžไบ‰๏ผŒๅœจ่พ“็”ตๅ’Œ้…็”ต้ข†ๅŸŸๅฎžๆ–ฝๆœ‰็ฎกๅˆถ็š„็ซžไบ‰ใ€‚่ฏฅๆณ•ๆกˆ็›ฎ็š„ๅฐฑๆ˜ฏๅฐ†็”ตๅŠ›ๅฝปๅบ•ๅธ‚ๅœบๅŒ–๏ผŒๅ›ฝๅฎถๅฐ†ไธๅ†็›ดๆŽฅๅ‡บ่ต„ๅปบ่ฎพ็”ต็ซ™๏ผŒๅญ˜้‡ๅ›ฝๆœ‰ๅ‘็”ต่ต„ไบง่ฟ˜่ฆ้™†็ปญๅ‡บๅ”ฎ๏ผŒๆœชๆฅ็š„ๆ–ฐๅขžๅ‘็”ต่ƒฝๅŠ›ๅ‡ ไนŽๅ…จ้ƒจ็”ฑ็งไบบๆŠ•่ต„่€…่ดŸ่ดฃๅปบ่ฎพ๏ผŒๆ”ฟๅบœ็š„่Œ่ƒฝ้›†ไธญๅœจๆไพ›ๆณ•ๅพ‹ใ€ๆ”ฟ็ญ–ๅ’Œ็›‘็ฎก็Žฏๅขƒใ€‚ๆญคๅค–๏ผŒๅ‘็”ต่กŒไธšๅฏนๅค–ๅ›ฝๆŠ•่ต„่€…็š„่ฟ›ๅ…ฅไนŸๆฒกๆœ‰่ฟ‡ๅคš้™ๅˆถใ€‚็”ต็ฝ‘่™ฝ็„ถๅฑžไบŽโ€œ่‡ช็„ถๅž„ๆ–ญโ€๏ผŒไฝ†ไป้€š่ฟ‡็‰น่ฎธ็ป่ฅๆƒๆ‹ๅ–็š„ๆ–นๅผๅฎ‰ๆŽ’็ฑปไผผไบŽ็งๆœ‰ๅŒ–็š„ๆฟ€ๅŠฑๆœบๅˆถใ€‚

In 2001, the Philippine government promulgated the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA), which divided the power industry into four sectors: power generation, power transmission, power distribution and power supply. Among them, fully open and strive to achieve complete competition in the field of power generation and power supply, and implement regulated competition in the field of power transmission and distribution. The purpose of the Act is to completely market the power industry. The state will no longer directly invest in the construction of power stations, and the existing state-owned power generation assets will be sold one after another. Almost all new power generation capacity in the future will be built by private investors. The function of the government is to provide legal services. , policy and regulatory environment. In addition, the power generation industry does not have too many restrictions on the entry of foreign investors. Although the power grid is a “natural monopoly”, privatization-like incentives are still arranged through franchise auctions.

2007ๅนด๏ผŒไธญๅ›ฝๅ›ฝๅฎถ็”ต็ฝ‘ๅ…ฌๅธไธŽ่ฒๅพ‹ๅฎพ่’™็‰น็ฝ—็”ต็ฝ‘่ต„ๆบๅ…ฌๅธ๏ผˆMOGRC๏ผ‰ใ€ๅกๆ‹‰ๅก้ซ˜็”ตๅ…ฌๅธ๏ผˆCALACA๏ผ‰่”ๅˆๆŠ•ๆ ‡่Žทๅพ—ไบ†่ฒๅพ‹ๅฎพ่พ“็”ต็Žฏ่Š‚ๅ”ฏไธ€็š„็‰น่ฎธ็ป่ฅๆƒ๏ผŒ็ป„ๅปบไบ†่ฒๅพ‹ๅฎพๅ›ฝๅฎถ็”ต็ฝ‘ๅ…ฌๅธ๏ผˆNGCP๏ผ‰๏ผŒ่ดŸ่ดฃๆŠ•่ต„ๅŠ่ฟ่ฅ่ฒๅพ‹ๅฎพๅ…จๅ›ฝ็š„่พ“็”ต่ต„ไบงใ€‚ไธญๅ›ฝๅ›ฝๅฎถ็”ต็ฝ‘ๅ…ฌๅธ็š„ๅŠ ๅ…ฅ๏ผŒๅ€ŸๅŠฉไธญๅ›ฝ็š„ๆŠ€ๆœฏไผ˜ๅŠฟ๏ผŒๆˆๅŠŸ็š„้™ไฝŽไบ†่ฒๅพ‹ๅฎพ็š„็”ต็ฝ‘็š„็บฟๆŸ๏ผŒๅฐ†ๅ…ถไปŽ16%้™ไฝŽๅˆฐ9%๏ผŒ่ฟ˜ๅคงๅคงๆ้ซ˜ไบ†็”ต็ฝ‘็š„ๅฏ้ ๆ€ง๏ผŒๆ”นๅ–„ไบ†่ฒๅพ‹ๅฎพ็ปๅธธๅœ็”ต็š„็Šถๅ†ตใ€‚ไธŽๆญคๅŒๆ—ถ๏ผŒๅ›ฝๅฎถ็”ต็ฝ‘ๅ…ฌๅธ็š„ๆŠ•่ต„ไนŸๅธฆๅŠจไบ†ไธญๅ›ฝ่ฎพๅค‡ๅˆถ้€ ๅ•†ๅ’Œๅทฅ็จ‹ๆ‰ฟๅŒ…ๅ•†่ฟ›ๅ…ฅ่ฒๅพ‹ๅฎพๅธ‚ๅœบใ€‚

In 2007, State Grid Corporation of China, Monte Oro Grid Resources Corporation (MOGRC) and Calaca High Power Corporation (CALACA) jointly bid to obtain the only franchise in the power transmission in the Philippines, and established the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP), which is responsible for the investment and operation of transmission assets across the Philippines. With the Participation of State Grid Corporation of China, with the help of China’s technological advantages, has successfully reduced the transmission loss of the Philippines’ power grid from 16 % to 9%. It has also greatly improved the reliability of the power grid and improved the situation of frequent power outages in the Philippines. At the same time, it has also driven chinese equipment manufacturers and engineering contractors to enter the Philippine market.

่ฒๅพ‹ๅฎพ็ปๆตŽๅขž้•ฟ่ฟ…้€Ÿ๏ผŒ็”ตๅŠ›้œ€ๆฑ‚ๆ—บ็››๏ผŒไธ”็”ตๅŠ›ๅŸบ็ก€่ฎพๆ–ฝๅปบ่ฎพไบŸๅพ…ๅ‘ๅฑ•ใ€‚ไฝ†ๅ—ๅค–่ต„ๆŠ•่ต„้™ๅˆถ็š„ๅฝฑๅ“๏ผŒๅค–่ต„ๆŠ•่ต„็”ตๅŠ›้œ€ๆฑ‚ไธ้ซ˜๏ผŒ้œ€่ฆๅฏน้กน็›ฎ่ฟ›่กŒๅ…ทไฝ“็š„็”„้€‰ใ€‚ไธญ่ต„ไผไธšๅบ”็ป“ๅˆๅ„่‡ช็š„ไผ˜ๅŠฟ๏ผŒๅฏปๆ‰พๅˆ้€‚็š„่ฎพๅค‡ๅˆถ้€ ๅ•†ๅ’Œๆœฌๅœฐๆ–ฝๅทฅๅˆไฝœไผ™ไผด่ฟ›่กŒๅˆไฝœๅผ€ๅ‘ใ€‚ๅฏนๆœ€ๆ–ฐ็š„ใ€ๅ‰ๆฒฟ็š„ๆŠ€ๆœฏๅ’ŒไธšๅŠก๏ผŒๅบ”ๆๅ‰่ฟ›่กŒๆŽจไป‹ๅ’Œๅธƒๅฑ€๏ผŒๅฆ‚็ปผๅˆ่ƒฝๆบใ€ๅ‚จ่ƒฝๆŠ€ๆœฏใ€ๆ™บ่ƒฝ็”ต็ฝ‘็ญ‰ๆ–น้ข็š„ไธšๅŠกใ€‚ๅœจๅ•†ไธšๆจกๅผๅ’ŒๆŠ•่ž่ต„ๆ–น้ข๏ผŒๅบ”็งฏๆžๆŽข็ดขไธŽๅฑžๅœฐๅˆไฝœไผ™ไผด่”ๅˆๅผ€ๅ‘็š„ๆœบไผš๏ผŒ็งฏๆžๆŽข็ดข่”ๅˆๆŠ•่ต„็š„ๆจกๅผใ€‚ The Philippine economy is growing rapidly, the demand for electricity is strong, and the construction of electricity infrastructure is in urgent need of development. However, due to the restrictions on foreign investment, the demand for foreign investment in electricity is not high, and specific projects need to be selected. Chinese-funded enterprises should combine their respective advantages to find suitable equipment manufacturers and local construction partners for cooperative development. The latest and cutting-edge technologies and businesses should be promoted and deployed in advance, such as businesses in integrated energy, energy storage technology, and smart grids. In terms of business models and investment and financing, opportunities for joint development with local partners should be actively explored, especially the mode of joint investment.

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